The Morning Call---Thoughts for 2023

 

The Morning Call

 

1/4/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

        

         Tuesday in the charts.

         https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-bear-market-enters-year-two-gold-hits-6-month-high

 

         Stats from the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

         https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/03/investor-resolutions-january-stats-for-2023

        

         More data on the ‘Santa Claus’ rally.

         https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-happens-next-after-santa-claus-non-rally

 

         Charts from Ed Yardini.

         https://www.yardeni.com/pub/dailyoverview.pdf?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=240196708&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9Z-w1hK0IZVRa_KL1n4b6vTGDlElEf6tE6gOmTISxWUJDx3uQ56wvQWdZ3-SCIbQby_3r2BRd_HXfq0_DxAy9VOTV2jA&utm_content=240196708&utm_source=hs_email

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                        

  Weekly mortgage applications fell 10.3% while purchase applications were down 12.2%.

 

                           Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior   

                           week.

                        

                           November construction spending was up 0.2% versus consensus of -0.4%.

                           https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/construction-spending-increased-02-in.html

 

                          The December manufacturing PMI was 46.2 versus 47.7 in November.

                        

                        International

 

The December German services PMI was 49.2 versus expectations of 49.0; the December composite PMI was 49.0 versus 48.9; the December EU services PMI was 49.8 versus 49.1; the December composite PMI was 49.3 versus 48.8.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Money supply turned negative for the first time in 33 years.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/money-supply-growth-turns-negative-first-time-33-years

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              How much has been added to the federal deficit in the last two years.

              http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2022/12/biden-fiscal-policy.html

 

            Inflation

 

              One year ahead inflation expectations.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/01/one-year-ahead-inflation-expectations-january-2023

 

              More war means more inflation.

                          https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/high-inflation-long-term-problem-owing-to-real-and-metaphorical-wars-by-nouriel-roubini-2022-12

 

              Be prepared for higher gas prices this spring.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/todays-cheaper-gas-calm-2023s-storm

 

            Recession

 

              The St. Louis Fed comes up with a new recession indicator.

              https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/dec/are-state-economic-conditions-harbinger-national-recession

 

  Bottom line

 

            US junk bond investors brace for downgrades and defaults.

            https://www.ft.com/content/742b1944-d1f5-40cb-a2c0-ee7d8c95a360

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

Thoughts for 2023:

 

   It is not the destination; it is the journey.

   https://thereformedbroker.com/2023/01/01/ithaka-13/

 

   Without change there would be no butterflies.

   https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/01/how-to-start-your-new-year.html

 

   How will investors behave in 2023?

   https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2023/01/03/how-will-investors-behave-in-2023/

 

   Observations from Barry Ritholtz.

   https://ritholtz.com/2023/01/observations-to-start-2023/

 

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/01/quotation-of-the-day-4133.html

           

                        Wealth across generations.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/01/wealth-across-the-generations.html

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.