The Morning Call---Estimating future stock returns

The Morning Call

 

1/10/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-rate-cut-expectations-soar-ahead-powell-speech

 

            Bond market sees stronger case for soft landing.

            https://www.axios.com/2023/01/09/bond-market-yields-soft-landing

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Consumer credit increased $27.9 billion in November versus expectations of $25.0 billion.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/flashing-red-alert-near-record-surge-credit-card-debt-just-average-rate-hits-all-time-high

 

The December small business optimism index came in at 89.8 versus 91.9 in November.

 

                        International

                            

  November Japanese household spending fell 0.9% versus forecasts of -0.5%; December core CPI was +4.0% versus +3.8%.                      

 

                        Other

 

                          December rail car loadings decline.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/aar-december-rail-carloads-and.html

 

                          December wholesale used car prices down 14.9%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/wholesale-used-car-prices-down-149-year.html

                   

                          A second opinion on those better than expected wage inflation numbers.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/afb30261-397a-47e5-afab-b656a3064a3f

 

                      Analyst says oil could reach $140/barrel.

                      https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/andurand-oil-prices-could-exceed-140-if-chinas-economy-fully-reopens

 

                    Recession

 

                      Recession indicator may be wrong this time.

                      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-04/pioneering-yield-curve-economist-sees-us-able-to-dodge-recession?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                    The coronavirus

 

The CDC finally releases the safety monitoring analysis for Covid   vaccines (you only need to read the summary).

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cdc-finally-releases-vaers-safety-monitoring-analyses-covid-vaccines

 

     Bottom line

 

            More on valuation.

            https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/The-Bubble-Has-Not-Popped

 

            Forward returns will likely disappoint.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/09/forward-returns-will-disappoint-compared-to-the-past-decade

 

            The latest from John Mauldin.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/06/year-of-the-pause

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/morgan-stanley-s-wilson-says-stocks-undervaluing-recession-risk?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Estimating future stock returns.

            https://alephblog.com/2023/01/08/estimating-future-stock-returns-september-2022-update/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Why was Roman concrete so durable?

            https://news.mit.edu/2023/roman-concrete-durability-lime-casts-0106

 

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