The Morning Call---A change coming in Ukraine?

The Morning Call

 

1/27/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-drop-stocks-dollar-pop-hawkish-rate-hike-odds-shift

 

Note: the S&P closed above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend.  If it remains there through the close on Monday, it will reset to a trading range.  Were that to occur, the next resistance level is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (~4200).

 

            The pain trade is higher.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/26/the-pain-trade-is-higher-for-now

 

Counterpoint

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-warnings-get-louder-estimates-falling

 

When stocks don’t go down on bad news, that is bullish.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-when-stocks-dont-go-down-bad-news-thats-bullish-signal

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The November Chicago Fed national activity index came in at -.51 versus consensus of -.18.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/01/26/chicago-fed-little-change-in-economic-growth-in-december

 

December new home sales rose 2.3% versus projections of -2.0%.  But that is somewhat misleading.  Read this:

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/01/new-home-market-capitalization-crash.html#.Y9LVKnbMKUk

 

December personal income was up 0.2%, in line; personal spending was down 0.2% versus -0.1%; the PCE price index was up 0.1%, in line.

 

The January Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was -4 versus expectations of -14.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/01/26/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-survey-activity-was-flat

 

                        International

 

January Japanese YoY CPI was 4.4% versus estimates of 4.2%; YoY core CPI was 4.3% versus 4.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Toward a sane energy policy.

                          https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/energy-starts-at-home

 

            The Fed

 

              More on M2 and its impact on the economy/inflation.

              https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-inflation-roller-coaster-prompts-fresh-look-long-ignored-money-supply-2023-01-26/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              How worried should we be if the debt ceiling is not lifted?

              https://www.brookings.edu/2023/01/25/how-worried-should-we-be-if-the-debt-ceiling-isnt-lifted/

 

            Geopolitics

 

An interesting change in the rhetoric about Ukraine; but it is only a starting point---if that.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/01/blinken-concedes-war-is-lost-offers-kremlin-ukrainian-demilitarization-crimea-donbass-zaporozhe-and-restriction-of-new-tanks-to-western-ukraine-if-there-is-no-russian-offensive.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            The risks in constantly tinkering with our investment process.

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2023/01/24/why-cant-we-stop-changing-our-investment-process/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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