The Morning Call--The Fed 'whisperer' says next hike is 25bp

 

The Morning Call

 

1/13/23

 

I am travelling on Friday.  So, this is early.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                  

            Thursday in the charts.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soft-cpi-sparks-buying-panic-bonds-stocks-bitcoin-bullion

 

Note: the S&P closed right on its 200 DMA.  Successfully challenging this resistance point will likely be a big plus for equities.  Now it just has to do it.

 

            Is the dollar going to bounce?

            https://allstarcharts.com/the-euro-has-the-answer/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          The OPEC ‘put’.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/d235a4e5-1231-451f-8665-81695e7c4261

 

                          Wall Street’s newest ESG ploy.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-12/bankers-bet-millions-on-sovereign-debt-deals-tied-to-green-  goals?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed ‘whisperer’ says next rate hike 25bp.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-and-done-fed-mouthpiece-nick-t-says-next-fed-hike-will-be-25bps

 

 

            Inflation

 

              Inside yesterday’s CPI number.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/cpi-prints-expected-real-wages-shrink-21st-month-row

 

               Parsing core inflation.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/forget-core-cpi-market-pros-are-searching-for-supercore-inflation-11673413222?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Recession

 

              Is the labor market’s resilience about to fade?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-labor-markets-resilience-poised-to-fade/

 

            China

 

              Why China is changing its tone towards business.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/business/china-economy.html?

 

              US imports from China declined sharping in November.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/01/us-imports-from-china-collapse-in.html#.Y8AzfXbMKUk

 

    Bottom line

 

            Three investment themes for 2023 from Richard Bernstein Advisors.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/11/3-investment-themes-for-2023

 

            Low expectations for Q4 earnings season.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/12/business/corporate-earnings-fourth-quarter.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Administrative bloat in colleges.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/01/the-daily-chart-bloat-for-blubberers.php

 

 

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