The Morning Call---The debt ceiling is back

 

The Morning Call

 

1/20/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dow-purges-ytd-gains-hard-landing-debt-ceiling-fears-surge

 

Note: the S&P has another lousy day.  However, it made a gap down open (as did many stocks in our Universe) which needs to be filled.

 

            The short squeeze is over.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-squeeze-over-and-now-battle-3923-begins

 

            The argument for why stocks bottomed last June.

            https://allstarcharts.com/why-stocks-bottomed-last-june/

 

            The argument for why they didn’t.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-market-vulnerable-hitting-new-cycle-lows

 

            Liquidity about to turn more restrictive.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/liquidity-about-turn-more-restrictive

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

December Japanese CPI was +0.3% versus predictions of +0.2%.

 

December UK retail sales fell 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.5%; ex fuels, they were down 1.1% versus +0.4%; January consumer confidence came in at -45 versus -40.

 

December German PPI fell 0.4% versus estimates of -1.2%.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest nowcast for Q4 US GDP growth.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/01/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-mid-january-2023

 

                                  Falling retail sales raises warning flag for consumer sector.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/falling-us-retail-sales-raise-warning-flag-for-consumer-sector/

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on the price of a can of Campbell’s tomato soup.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-price-history-of-campbells-tomato.html#.Y8l843bMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

              ECB member says that investors are misjudging the bank’s intent on raising rates.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/19/european-central-bank-member-says-it-will-not-stop-at-one-single-50-basis-point-hike-thats-for-sure.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

The debt ceiling is now back in the headlines.  Unfortunately, it should always there because our political class is bankrupting the citizenry through its irresponsible spendthrift policies.  But you have heard this all before.

 

              Put a brake on the debt ceiling charade.

  https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/01/its-time-to-put-a-brake-on-the-debt-ceiling-charade/?utm_source=recirc-   %5BSCREENSIZE%5D&utm_medium=homepage&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=capital-matters&utm_term=first

 

              The debt ceiling fight is just a symptom of the disease.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-debt-ceiling-fight-is-a-symptom-of-congresss-disease/

 

                  Ed Yardini on the debt ceiling and the economy.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-01-18/ed-yardeni-on-debt-ceiling-stocks-and-inflation?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

      Bottom line

 

            Dr. Doom does it again.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/megathreats-and-polycrisis-descend-on-davos-by-nouriel-roubini-2023-01?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote

 

                And if the above isn’t enough, here is Jim Grant on the biggest risk to the Market.

https://themarket.ch/english/jim-grant-japan-is-perhaps-the-most-important-risk-ld.8232?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=242171445&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--c-WbfTK-d-AaRk3YaoyBpwN-UtRi0MfcIP5UtjUr6HwfAitDnvG9aCeYY_BkuKL1pmQJMzgZ8CsumqyhklnBy-_TRuQ&utm_content=242171445&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The lifelong power of close relationships (great read).

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-lifelong-power-of-close-relationships-11673625450?st=s5eg2inl8o4rlk8&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

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