The Morning Call
1/5/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/good-jolts-data-hawkish-fed-minutes-stymie-santa-claus-rally
Back to back down
years are rare since 1957.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/back-back-down-years-are-rare-stock-market
What the ‘January
barometer’ predicts for the rest of 2023.
The S&P and the Fed’s balance sheet.
https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-bears-favorite-chart/
Consumer sentiment is awful.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/01/03/great-news-consumer-sentiment-is-awful/
Don’t forget commodities.
https://allstarcharts.com/is-trend-over-23/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The November JOLTS report showed new job openings
of 10.5 million versus consensus of
10.0 million.
The November trade balance was -$61.5 billion
versus forecasts of -$73 billion.
The December ISM manufacturing index was 48.9
versus predictions of 48.5.
The December ADP private payrolls report
reflected an increase of 235,000 in employment versus expectations of 150,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/adp-reports-big-jump-jobs-december-wage-growth-plunges
December initial jobless claims totaled
204,000 versus projections of 225,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jobless-claims-print-better-expected
International
The December Chinese Caixin services PMI was
48.0 versus 46.7 in November; the December composite PMI was
48.3 versus 47.0 in November.
December Japanese consumer confidence was 30.3
versus 28.6 in November.
The November German trade balance was E10.8
billion versus E7.5 billion in November; the December construction PMI was 41.7
versus 41.5 in November.
November EU PPI was -0.9%, in line; the December
EU construction PMI was 42.6 versus 43.6 in November.
December YoY UK new car sales grew 18.3%
versus 23.5% in November; the December services PMI was 49.9 versus estimates
of 50.0; the December composite PMI was 49.0, in line.
.
Other
November median household income.
The worst
of the EU’s energy crisis maybe yet to come.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/01/worst-of-europes-energy-crisis-may-be-yet-to-come.html
Global manufacturing continued to decline in December.
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/61782d8eac584849b191087c4a41ddee
The
Fed
The FOMC released
the minutes from its December meeting---and as usual they were cryptic enough
to give both bulls and bears something to hold on to: (1) the narrative expressed
frustration that the Markets weren’t discounting a hawkish Fed but (2) several
members expressed the view that there were multiple risks, i.e., both inflation
and recession, facing the economy. In
short, the Fed members are pissed that the Markets doubt that they have the
balls to stick with policies that will return inflation to the 2% target, but
they are scared shitless that those policies won’t lead to a soft landing---which,
if I read the history books correctly, there is a near zero probability of occurring. You decide.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-2
Inflation
Inflation in the services sector is also
rolling over.
https://www.cato.org/blog/fed-chair-powells-story-about-service-price-inflation-untrue-3
China
A must read interview with a China expert.
In support
of the above analysis.
The
coronavirus
Here is a new study on the efficacy of the
current Covid vaccine protocol.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
MSC Industrial Direct press release (NYSE:MSM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.48 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $957.7M (+12.9% Y/Y) beats by $10.06M.
What
I am reading today
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