Tuesday, January 24, 2023

The Morning Call---Is a 'soft landing' a myth?

 

The Morning Call

 

 

1/24/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bond-yields-jump-leading-indicators-scream-recession

 

Note: the S&P remained above its 200 DMA for a second day.  It also touched the upper boundary of its short-term downtrend intraday but backed off. Nonetheless, the index is now testing two resistance levels simultaneously.

 

            Margin debt down in December.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/01/23/margin-debt-down-5-8-in-december

 

A Market recovery depends on rapidly declining inflation---that could be a problem.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/market-recovery-hinges-on-quick-inflation-drop-11674427477?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

            Commodities are shrugging off peak inflation.

            https://allstarcharts.com/commodities-shrug-off-peak-inflation/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The December leading economic indicators fell 1.0% versus expectations of -0.7%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/01/23/cb-lei-10th-consecutive-decline-in-december-recession-signal-continues

 

                        International

 

The January EU flash consumer confidence index was -20.9 versus estimates of -20.0; the January EU flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus 48.5; the flash services PMI was 50.7 versus 50.2; the flash composite PMI was 50.2 versus 49.8.

 

The January Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.9 versus predictions of 49.4; the flash services PMI was 52.4 versus 50.6; the flash composite PMI was 50.8 versus 50.0.

 

The January German flash manufacturing PMI was 47.0 versus consensus of 47.9; the flash services PMI was 50.4 versus 49.6; the flash composite PMI was 49.7 versus 49.6; February consumer confidence was -33.9 versus -33.0.

 

The January UK flash manufacturing PMI was 46.7 versus forecasts of 45.5; the flash services PMI was 48.0 versus 49.7; the flash composite PMI was 47.8 versus 49.1; the Q1 business optimism index was -5 versus -60.

 

                        Other

 

                          LA port inbound traffic down 20% YoY in December.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/la-port-inbound-traffic-down-20-yoy-in.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Can/will the Fed break the Fed ‘put’?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/23/monetary-policy-is-the-fed-trying-to-wean-markets-off-of-it

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A nation divided and indebted cannot stand.

              https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2023/01/20/the-debt-ceiling-a-nation-divided-and-indebted-cannot-stand/

 

                  Crashing through the debt ceiling.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/01/guest-contribution-crashing-through-the-debt-ceiling

 

Everyone has a solution for the debt ceiling crisis but no one has a solution for fiscal irresponsibility.

https://www.ibtimes.com/bipartisan-us-lawmakers-preparing-plan-avert-debt-ceiling-crisis-3659677

 

Inflation

 

              Inflation is not higher prices.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2023/01/22/what-you-think-inflation-is-its-not/?sh=69059f3245e9

 

                  China’s re-opening will complicate the fight against inflation.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-reopening-complicates-global-fight-against-inflation-11674344924

 

                Recession

 

               Is a ‘soft landing’ a myth?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soft-landing-scenario-another-fed-myth

                   

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

3M press release (NYSE:MMM): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.28 misses by $0.11.

Revenue of $8.1B (-5.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

Johnson & Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.35 beats by $0.11.

Revenue of $23.7B (-4.4% Y/Y) misses by $200M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            An energetic body yields an energetic mind.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/01/changing-your-trading-psychology-by.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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