Wednesday, January 25, 2023

The Morning Call---A note form the Fed whisperer

The Morning Call

 

1/25/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/short-squeeze-stalls-amid-equity-market-mayhem-bonds-black-gold-sink

 

            The Market lacks a trend.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/life-after-brutal-squeeze

 

            A rare technical positive.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/01/the-final-opportunity-to-buy-stocks-before-a-huge-breakout/

 

            The bullish trifecta.

            https://allstarcharts.com/the-bullish-trifecta/

 

            On the other hand, stocks face significant downside IF there is a deep recession.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-face-25-more-downside-deep-recession

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 7.0% while purchase applications were up 3.4%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.

 

The January Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -11 versus forecasts of -5.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/01/24/richmond-fed-manufacturing-declined-in-january

 

The January flash manufacturing PMI was 46.8 versus projections of 46.0; the flash services PMI was 46.6 versus 45.0; the flash composite PMI was 46.6 versus 45.1.

 

                        International

 

The November Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 97.4 versus estimates of 97.6.

 

                          The January German business climate index was reported at 90.2, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest Q4 nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-nowcasts-project-solid-rise-for-thursdays-report/

 

            The Fed

 

              Why hasn’t the Fed tried this before?  Shrink the balance sheet but lower rates.

              https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/

 

              From the Fed whisperer: Fed sets course for milder rate rise in February.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-sets-course-for-milder-interest-rate-rise-in-february-11674362567

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              My favorite optimist sugar coats the debt.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/01/federal-debt-is-not-as-bad-as-you-might.html

 

              Your tax dollars at work---sugar coat this!

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-rocked-corruption-scandal-wave-top-official-resignations-sports-cars-mansions

 

            Recession

 

              Stop worrying about those tech layoffs.

              https://ritholtz.com/2023/01/stop-worrying-about-all-those-tech-layoffs/

 

              Beware recession talk fatigue.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-01-23/don-t-get-disoriented-by-recession-talk-fatigue?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Bottom line

 

            Don’t waste your time trying to know the unknowable.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/01/22/weekly-market-pulse-a-fatal-conceit/

 

            The latest from Jeremy Grantham.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/24/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Microsoft press release (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $52.7B (+1.9% Y/Y) misses by $450M.

 

Canadian National Railway press release (NYSE:CNI): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of C$2.10 beats by C$0.02.

Revenue of C$4.54B (+21.1% Y/Y) beats by C$60M.

 

National Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares C$0.79/share quarterly dividend, 7.8% increase from prior dividend of C$0.7325.

 

General Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q4 GAAP EPS of $3.58 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $10.9B (+5.9% Y/Y) beats by $240M.

 

Automatic Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.96 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $4.39B (+8.9% Y/Y) in-line.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 


No comments:

Post a Comment