The Morning Call
1/25/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
The Market lacks a
trend.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/life-after-brutal-squeeze
A rare technical positive.
The bullish
trifecta.
https://allstarcharts.com/the-bullish-trifecta/
On the other hand,
stocks face significant downside IF there is a deep recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-stocks-face-25-more-downside-deep-recession
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications rose 7.0% while purchase applications were up 3.4%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.
The January
Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -11 versus forecasts of -5.
The January flash
manufacturing PMI was 46.8 versus projections of 46.0; the flash services PMI
was 46.6 versus 45.0; the flash composite PMI was 46.6 versus 45.1.
International
The November Japanese
leading economic indicators came in at 97.4 versus estimates of 97.6.
The January German business climate index was reported
at 90.2, in line.
Other
The latest Q4 nowcasts.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q4-gdp-nowcasts-project-solid-rise-for-thursdays-report/
The
Fed
Why hasn’t the Fed tried this before? Shrink the balance sheet but lower rates.
https://fedguy.com/come-hell-or-high-water/
From the Fed whisperer: Fed sets course for
milder rate rise in February.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-sets-course-for-milder-interest-rate-rise-in-february-11674362567
Fiscal
Policy
My favorite optimist sugar coats the debt.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/01/federal-debt-is-not-as-bad-as-you-might.html
Your tax dollars at work---sugar coat this!
Recession
Stop worrying about those tech layoffs.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/01/stop-worrying-about-all-those-tech-layoffs/
Beware recession talk fatigue.
Bottom line
Don’t waste your
time trying to know the unknowable.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/01/22/weekly-market-pulse-a-fatal-conceit/
The latest from
Jeremy Grantham.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/24/after-a-timeout-back-to-the-meat-grinder
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Microsoft
press release (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.32 beats by $0.01.
Revenue
of $52.7B (+1.9% Y/Y) misses by $450M.
Canadian
National Railway press release (NYSE:CNI): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
C$2.10 beats by C$0.02.
Revenue
of C$4.54B (+21.1% Y/Y) beats by C$60M.
National
Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares C$0.79/share quarterly dividend, 7.8% increase from prior
dividend of C$0.7325.
General
Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q4 GAAP EPS of $3.58 beats by $0.04.
Revenue
of $10.9B (+5.9% Y/Y) beats by $240M.
Automatic
Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.96 beats by $0.02.
Revenue
of $4.39B (+8.9% Y/Y) in-line.
What
I am reading today
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