The Morning Call---Bonds aren't buying a hawkish Fed

 

The Morning Call

 

1/11/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-squeeze-higher-after-powell-nothingburger-bonds-dumped

               

Note: at the close yesterday, the S&P reset its 100 DMA from resistance to support.  Next stops: (1) its 200 DMA [~3990] and the upper boundary of its short-term downtrend [~4200].

 

            On the bright side.

            https://allstarcharts.com/everything-is-up-in-this-bull-market/

 

            The bond market isn’t buying the hawkish Fed.

            https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/short-term-treasury-yields-provide-the-tell/

 

            The dollar’s influence on the stock market.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-us-dollars-influence-on-the-stock-market-isnt-trivial/#more-19453

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew much slower than in the prior week.

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 1.2% while purchase applications declined 0.5%.

 

                        International

 

                          November Chinese CPI declined 0.2% versus forecasts -0.1%.

 

                        Other

  

                          New home market enters 2023 in distress.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/01/us-new-home-market-enters-2023-in.html#.Y72B5nbMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

              Jamie Dimon says Fed will have to raise rates above 5%.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-10/jamie-dimon-says-fed-may-need-to-hike-interest-rates-beyond-5?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Inflation

 

              Blackrock says investors are underestimating inflation.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-10/markets-are-underestimating-inflation-again-asset-managers-warn?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The consensus will be wrong.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/01/08/weekly-market-pulse-the-consensus-will-be-wrong/

 

            The price to fantasy ratio.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/10/price-to-fantasy-ratio-self-deception-with-forward-operating-earnings

 

                        Wall Street sets low bar for upcoming earnings season.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-sets-low-bar-for-corporate-earnings-season-11673123491

 

                        The latest from Jeff Gundlach.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jeff-gundlach-live-webcast-whats-going

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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