Wednesday, January 18, 2023

The Morning Call---Investors most underweight stocks since 2005

 

The Morning Call

 

1/18/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boj-beijing-brussels-leave-banks-bonds-big-tech-bitcoin-bullion-mixed-after-long-weekend

 

            The pain trade is higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pain-trade-higher-now

 

            The fall of the dollar is about more than just interest rates.

            https://www.ft.com/content/4de92f95-9bd6-487d-822c-e3872f2f8da4

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 27.9% while purchase applications were up 24.7%.

 

December PPI was reported down 0.5% versus expectations of -0.1%; core PPI was +0.1%, in line.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-producer-prices-plunge-most-covid-lockdowns

 

December retail sales declined 1.1% versus predictions of -0.8%; ex autos, they were down 1.1% versus -0.4%.

 

                        International

 

November Japanese machinery orders fell 8.3% versus forecasts of -0.9%; November industrial production was up 0.2% versus -0.1%.

 

December UK CPI came in at +0.4%, in line; core CPI was +0.5% versus +0.4%.; December EU CPI was -0.4% versus -0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                           House prices will likely fall further.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/01/17/home-prices-will-likely-fall-further

 

            The Fed

 

              How the Fed redistributed wealth and encouraged bad corporate behavior.

              https://reason.com/2023/01/15/the-everything-bubble/

 

The EU governments have been much more fiscally irresponsible than the US and the ECB has historically been far more cowardly than the Fed.  So small wonder that rumors are flying of a less hawkish approach to monetary policy.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-spike-report-ecb-slow-hikes-after-february

               

               But here is the official story line.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/business/core-inflation-europe-eurozone.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Thoughts on the upcoming battle over the debt ceiling.

              https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p/what-is-the-house-gop-thinking

 

            Inflation

 

              A long term look at CPI.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/01/17/long-term-look-at-the-cpi

 

            Recession

 

              Recession tales.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/01/recession-tales-from-the-wsj-january-survey

 

            Geopolitics

 

              What if Russia won the Ukraine was and the western media didn’t notice?

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/01/what-if-russia-won-the-ukraine-war-but-the-western-press-didnt-notice.html

 

            China

 

              China at a critical juncture.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/16/business/china-birth-rate.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Brightening outlook for 2023 dividend increases.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/01/brightening-outlook-for-2023-dividends.html#.Y8bxHHbMKUk

 

Investors most underweight US stocks since 2005.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-most-underweight-us-stocks-091928301.html

 

            The beginning of the end of the credit cycle.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beginning-end-credit-cycle

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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