The Morning Call
1/19/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bond-yields-slump-soft-landing-story-crashes
Note: the S&P
fall back through its 200 DMA, ending that challenge and leaving the MA as
resistance. I speculated on Tuesday that
the recent surge in equity and bond prices (of which this challenge was a part)
seemed to indicate that market participants were buying into the ‘Fed lucked
out’ scenario (no recession but lower inflation). Yesterday’s pin action questions that
thesis. I think it is still too soon to
know whether or not the Fed lucked out. Follow through will tell us that. But I remain convinced even if the ‘lucked out’
scenario turns out to be correct, it will be a short term phenomena. Longer term, there are just too many self-inflicted
economic wounds for the economy/Market to have escaped further damage.
Inside the high
yield spread.
https://us13.campaign-archive.com/?id=8aa0458b64&u=6dc62f307511d466ff78a94fe
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 190,000 versus expectations of 214,000.
December industrial
production fell 1.3% versus estimates of -0.3%; capacity utilization was 78.8%
versus 79.6%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/industrial-production-decreased-07.html
December housing
starts fell 1.4% versus forecasts of -1.9%; building permits were down 1.6%
versus +3.7%.
The January
housing index came in at 35 versus projections of 31.
The January
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at -8.9 versus predictions of
-11.
International
The December
Japanese trade balance was Y-1448.5 billion versus consensus of Y-1652.8 billion.
Other
The NY Fed’s household spending survey.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce/household-spending#/
The
Fed
Is QT finally starting to have an impact?
https://www.ft.com/content/6bab8f9d-bb66-4c9f-8c29-8c8df46424aa
The Fed released
its latest Beige Book. It didn’t tell us
anything that we don’t already know---slowing economy, slowing rate of
inflation increases.
Inflation
Maybe it was transitory after all.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/01/16/weekly-market-pulse-maybe-it-was-transitory-after-all/
How Owners’ Equivalent Rent is distorting the
inflation numbers.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/01/for-lower-inflation-stop-raising-rates/
Shoppers rebellion against higher prices helps
slow inflation.
Oil
Oil prices rally as confidence in economic recovery
grows.
IEA says oil demand will hit record levels
this year.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.43 beats by $0.01.
Revenue
of $1.69B (+10.5% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
Fastenal
(NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, 12.9% increase from prior
dividend of $0.31.
What
I am reading today
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