The Morning Call
7/7/26
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/one-bubble-after-another-bitcoin-bid-semis-slip-oil-gold-dip
Summary:
After a long weekend - following an ugly week - stocks bounced (in
their seasonally normal manner to start July) but early
momentum/memory gains faded somewhat. Bitcoin bounced back bigly after
early weakness (shrugging off the tech reversal on Trump comments). Bonds and
the dollar whipsawed higher then lower to end unch along with oil. Gold
down as ETF outflows continue. After Thursday's ugliness
post-payrolls, a long weekend of refreshment and patriotism had the buyers
stepping back in with big-tech (Nasdaq) leading the way, but all the majors
higher with The Dow topping 53k for the first time...
Monday in the technical
stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Misreading the data on margin debt risk.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/margin-debt-risk-the-ratios-that-mislead-investors-1783330812
Bitcoin according to
Elliott Wave Theory.
Tuesday morning
setup: Stocks fell as fresh volatility hit chipmakers after blowout earnings
from Samsung Electronics were still not good enough (the company missed
some buyside estimates) and left investors wanting even more, and sent its
stock tumbling as much as 11%, forcing another 20 minute halt of the Kospi. As
of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.2% and Nasdaq
futures fall 1%, with chip stocks sliding in premarket trading (both
Micron and Sandisk dropped more than 5%), following a tech led selloff in Asia,
while SpaceX is joining the index today, potentially leading to positioning
adjustments across global tech. European stocks are little changed. Meanwhile,
Brent crude futures rise 1.5% and are back above $73 a barrel
following another Iran attack on a Qatari LNG ship crossing the Strait of
Hormuz near Oman. European natural gas futures are up around 4%. Bonds trade
heavy as a result with a decline in Treasuries pushing US 10-year yields up 3
basis points to 4.50%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index inches higher with
modest moves across the G-10 complex. Precious metals fall as does
Bitcoin. US economic data calendar includes ADP weekly employment change
(8:15am), May trade balance (8:30am) and June New York Fed 1-year inflation
expectations (11am).
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail
chain store sales jumped 11.5% versus +10.5% in the prior week.
The May trade
balance was -$77.6 billion versus predictions of -$78.5 billion.
The June final
services PMI was reported at 51.2 versus forecasts of 51.4; the June final composite
PMI was 51.9 versus 52.2.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/06/sp-global-services-pmi-june-2026
The June ISM services index was 54.0, in
line.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-economically-weighted-ism-indexes.html
International
May Japanese
household spending rose 3.7% versus expectations of +1.4%; May YoY cash earnings
were up 3.2% versus 3.4%; the May preliminary leading economic indicators were
116.8 versus 116.9.
May
German industrial production was up 0.9% versus estimates of +0.2%.
Other
The latest from my
favorite optimist.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/06/interesting-chart-updates.html
The latest on US
dollar reserves.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/07/us-dollar-reserves-us-iran-war-1-month
Oil may be down
but container rates are up.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hormuz-rearview-asia-us-ocean-container-rates-soar-past-7900
Iran
Overnight news.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/qatari-lng-tanker-hit-iranian-missile-hormuz-chokepoint
Monetary
Policy
The bond market is telling the Fed to get on with
the rate hikes.
Counterpoint.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-markets-start-to-price-in-lower-inflation-risk/#more-25715
AI
AI prices are rising but the payoff is not yet
clear.
The next AI risk isn’t technology, it’s
politics.
The end of being drunk on AI?
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-end-of-being-drunk-on-ai.html
Investing
The growth in
crypto.
Expected Market
sector returns.
Surging profits
estimates raise fear of earnings bubble.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/5a6f496a-23ab-4bde-85a1-9b2660602179
Small cap stocks
are having their biggest run in decades.
The diminishing
case for dividend investing.
https://www.flyoverstocks.com/p/dividend-investing-is-dead
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Phil
Mickelson’s long history of misconduct.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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