The Morning Call---Affordability is a structural problem monetary policy can't fix

 

The Morning Call

 

2/24/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tariffs-tehran-spark-bonds-bullion-gains-big-tech-bitcoin-pain

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Margin debt up 4.4% in January.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/23/margin-debt-finra-new-record-high-january-2026

 

                Brace for a crash.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-investors-brace-crash-desk-activity-indicative-vix-35

 

                Zero S&P call demand.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-there-zero-sp-call-demand-trading-floor

 

                Prime season for volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/remember-what-markets-did-last-year-its-setting-again

 

                Gold breakout or blowoff?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-breakout-or-blow-monthly-rsi-96-dealers-fuel-rally

 

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

December factory orders were down 0.7% versus estimates of -0.5%; ex transportation, they were up 0.4% versus +0.1%.

 

The February Dallas Fed manufacturing index was +0.2 versus predictions of -3.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/23/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-stable-february-2026

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Trusting economic statistics.

                          https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/trust-in-numbers

 

                          Update on business cycle indicators.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/business-cycle-indicators-gdp-personal-income-mfg-trade-industry-sales-consumption

 

                          Long leading indicators point to slowing economy.

  https://talkmarkets.com/article/long-leading-indicators-in-q4-gdp-suggest-worsening-conditions-for-an-economy-barely-keeping-its-head-above-water-1771873171

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Why rates probably won’t be cut before May.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-fed-could-deliver-one-final-sting-to-your-portfolio-before-powells-exit-in-may-de2e8f28?st=97W9ZA

 

              AI is no excuse for the Fed to cut rates.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-23/ai-the-fed-and-interest-rates-no-excuse-to-cut?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Gold prices reflect public unease.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/02/22/the-gold-price-reflects-voter-unease-that-politicians-blithely-ignore/

 

              Debt to GDP ratio rises in Q4.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/21/us-treasury-debt-to-gdp-ratio-rises-to-122-in-q4-highest-since-covid-spike/

 

            Inflation

 

              Comparing the math in the CPI versus the PCE price indicator.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/21/pce-inflation-2-9-3-0-and-gdp-inflation-3-7-got-hotter-but-cpi-inflation-2-4-cooled-why-the-fed-needs-to-pay-serious-attention/

 

              Here is a slightly different take on what the math means.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/23/conflicting-data-results

 

              What causes stagflation?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/what-causes-stagflation

 

            Tariffs

 

              The fairy tale economics of tariffs.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/02/23/the_supreme_court_blocks_president_trumps_18_trillion_fairy_tale_1166289.html

 

              EU set to halt US trade deal.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-23/eu-set-to-freeze-us-trade-deal-approval-over-trump-tariff-risk?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Why tariffs aren’t shrinking the US trade deficit.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/why-tariffs-arent-shrinking-the-u-s-trade-deficit-30a4dd0a?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Affordability

 

              Affordability is a structural problem monetary policy can’t fix.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5747837-affordability-crisis-structural-failure/

 

            AI

 

               Responding sensibly to AI.

              https://ckarchive.com/b/k0umh6h5rwz88a6n33wn4aorrer77f8hgxwdn

           

     Investing

 

            Is China really dumping US Treasuries?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/23/china-dumping-us-treasuries

 

            The AI scare is healthy for the stock market.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-23/the-ai-scare-trade-is-heathy-for-the-stock-market?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Three risk factors stalk the market this week.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/a-triad-of-risk-factors-stalks-markets-this-week/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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