The Morning Call---The latest fund managers' survey

 

The Morning Call

 

2/18/26

 

The Market

 

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-crypto-slid-mega-cap-tech-bid-ai-kiss-death-continues-crush-coders

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The Market has a downside convexity problem.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/market-has-downside-convexity-problem

 

            Stay defensive, selective.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stay-defensive-selective-top-goldman-trader-warns-gamma-working-against-market-here

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 2.8% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.

 

December preliminary building permits rose 4.3% versus forecasts of -0.2%; December housing starts were up 6.2% versus -4.4%.

 

December durable goods orders fell 1.4% versus expectations of -2.0%; ex transportation, they were up 0.9% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/core-durable-goods-orders-surge-9th-straight-month

 

                          The February housing index was reported at 36 versus predictions of 38.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/17/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-february-2026

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese trade balance was -Y1152.7 billion versus projections of -Y2142.1 billion.

 

January UK CPI came in at -0.5% versus estimates of -0.4%; core CPI was down 0.6% versus -0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on delinquency rates for prime and subprime auto loans.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/17/serious-delinquency-rates-for-subprime-prime-auto-loans-balances-and-debt-to-income-ratio-in-q4-2025/

 

                          Household debt rises.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/17/household-debt-credit-report-q4-2025

 

            Overnight News

           

The Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realize, a military operation would likely be a massive, weeks long campaign that will be a joint US-Israeli attack.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/report-warns-us-iran-war-far-closer-americans-realize

 

US-brokered meetings in Geneva between Russia and Ukraine broke up after barely 90 minutes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy accused Moscow of attempting to prolong the process.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The problems with shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.

              https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/warsh-may-want-smaller-fed-balance-sheet-thats-hard-achieve-2026-02-17/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              US has a terminal case of fiscal paralysis.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-17/america-has-a-terminal-case-of-fiscal-paralysis?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            Inflation

 

              January CPI recap.

              https://assets.realclear.com/files/2026/02/2849_us_econ_notes_-_feb_13.pdf

 

              Where are interest rates and inflation headed?

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/short-and-medium-term-inflation.html

 

              Medical costs surge.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/medical-care-costs-surge-whats-the-inflation-impact-on-pce-and-cpi/

 

            AI

 

              JP Morgan: AI selling almost over.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-desk-says-ai-selling-almost-over-goes-long-basket-most-mispriced-and-insulated-ai

 

              Waiting for the AI J curve.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/waiting-for-the-ai-j-curve/

 

     Investing

 

            The latest fund managers’ survey.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/february-fund-manager-survey-near-record-euphoria-record-revulsion-against-capex-spending

 

            Buying stocks that everyone loves is a recipe for underperformance.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buying-stocks-everyone-admires-is-a-recipe-for-underperformance-but-apple-breaks-the-rule-26de6e2f?st=pYpEeF

           

            Ten year yields should be higher.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/10-year-yields-should-be-higher/

 

            More on valuation.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/sp500-cape-at-40

 

            Extreme market bifurcation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/17/extreme-market-bifurcation

 

            Is the stock market peaking?

            https://talkmarkets.com/article/weekly-market-pulse-is-the-stock-market-peaking-1771342388

 

            US markets and economy are headed into uncharted waters.

            https://www.ft.com/content/94112b05-ac15-4ab2-89d4-c546f597e5b0

 

            Active managers keep losing.

            https://larryswedroe.substack.com/p/active-managers-keep-losing-as-passive

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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