Thursday, February 19, 2026

The Monring Call---Disinflation or not

 

The Morning Call

 

2/19/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-gold-rip-retail-dip-buyers-rescue-software-stocks-amid-very-quiet-session

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

           

Fierce price undercurrents. (this article doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already know; but it does tell us what it could mean)

https://talkmarkets.com/article/calm-market-waters-hide-fierce-undercurrents-1771422356

           

            Everyone is betting against the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everyone-betting-against-king-dollar

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 206,000 versus consensus of 225,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-tumble-back-near-multi-decade-lows

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 7.2% versus up 6.5% in the prior week.

 

The December trade balance was -$70.3 billion versus expectations of -$55.5 billion.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-trade-deficit-unexpectedly-worsens-exports-slump-again-december

 

January industrial production rose 0.7% versus estimates of +0.4%; capacity utilization came in at 76.2% versus 76.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/18/recession-indicators-industrial-production-january-2026

 

The February Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was 16.3 versus projections of 8.5.

 

                        International

 

December Japanese machinery orders rose 19.1% versus forecasts of +4.5%.

 

December EU construction output declined 0.9% versus predictions of -0.3%.

 

The February UK industrial trends orders index was -25 versus consensus of -28.

 

                        Other

 

            Overnight News

 

The US military build-up in the Middle East means Iran’s window to reach a diplomatic agreement over its atomic activities is at risk of closing, according to the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog. The International Atomic Energy Agency has discussed concrete proposals with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to inspect sites bombed last year by Israel and the US

 

US President Trump and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico. US officials have been increasing pressure on Canada. Canadian officials cited add that their expectation for a full renewal of the USMCA is very low. Officials believe Trump is trying to weaken Canada economically to force it to give up some protectionist policies. The article reminds us that in 2018, the US proposed a bilateral deal with Mexico and told Canada to get on board or be left out.

 

            Monetary Policy

           

              FOMC minutes confirm divided Fed.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-35

 

              Somebody tell the Fed that we have arrived.

              Nirvana: Will Somebody Tell The Fed That We Have Arrived?

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Keep firing federal freeloaders.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2026/02/18/keep-firing-federal-freeloaders/

 

            Inflation

 

 

Disinflation hints.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/disinflation-hints-at-more-earlier-fed-rate-cuts/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citadel-macro-guru-warns-infl-ai-tion-risks-skewed-upside

 

            The Dollar

 

              Have we hit peak dollar bearishness?

              https://www.ft.com/content/89b950ae-c991-4730-b615-969f91547afc

 

            Affordability

 

              The untold story of affordability.

              https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/we-are-the-problem

 

     Investing

 

            How much pain can you endure without panicking?

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/how-much-can-you-suffer/

           

            The ‘bezzle’ and the bull market.

            https://novelinvestor.com/the-bezzle-and-the-bull-market/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Adam Smith’s legacy.

            https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gop-doesnt-know-smith-from-adam-36c0dd41?mod=opinion_lead_pos7

 

           

                        Inside the black box of prescription drug pricing.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/02/18/inside_the_black_box_of_prescription_drug_pricing_1164837.html

 

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