The Morning Call
2/19/26
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
Wednesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
Fierce price
undercurrents. (this article doesn’t tell us anything that we don’t already
know; but it does tell us what it could mean)
https://talkmarkets.com/article/calm-market-waters-hide-fierce-undercurrents-1771422356
Everyone is betting
against the dollar.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everyone-betting-against-king-dollar
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 206,000 versus consensus of 225,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-tumble-back-near-multi-decade-lows
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 7.2% versus up 6.5% in the prior week.
The December trade
balance was -$70.3 billion versus expectations of -$55.5 billion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-trade-deficit-unexpectedly-worsens-exports-slump-again-december
January industrial
production rose 0.7% versus estimates of +0.4%; capacity utilization came in at
76.2% versus 76.5%.
The February Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index was 16.3 versus projections of 8.5.
International
December Japanese
machinery orders rose 19.1% versus forecasts of +4.5%.
December EU
construction output declined 0.9% versus predictions of -0.3%.
The February UK industrial
trends orders index was -25 versus consensus of -28.
Other
Overnight
News
The US military
build-up in the Middle East means Iran’s window to reach a diplomatic agreement
over its atomic activities is at risk of closing, according to the head of the
United Nations nuclear watchdog. The International Atomic Energy Agency has
discussed concrete proposals with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to
inspect sites bombed last year by Israel and the US
US President Trump
and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY
Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and
Mexico. US officials have been increasing pressure on Canada. Canadian
officials cited add that their expectation for a full renewal of the USMCA is
very low. Officials believe Trump is trying to weaken Canada economically to
force it to give up some protectionist policies. The article reminds us that in
2018, the US proposed a bilateral deal with Mexico and told Canada to get on
board or be left out.
Monetary
Policy
FOMC minutes confirm divided Fed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-35
Somebody
tell the Fed that we have arrived.
Nirvana:
Will Somebody Tell The Fed That We Have Arrived?
Fiscal
Policy
Keep firing federal freeloaders.
https://issuesinsights.com/2026/02/18/keep-firing-federal-freeloaders/
Inflation
Disinflation
hints.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/disinflation-hints-at-more-earlier-fed-rate-cuts/
Counterpoint.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/citadel-macro-guru-warns-infl-ai-tion-risks-skewed-upside
The
Dollar
Have we hit peak dollar bearishness?
https://www.ft.com/content/89b950ae-c991-4730-b615-969f91547afc
Affordability
The untold story of affordability.
https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/we-are-the-problem
Investing
How much pain can
you endure without panicking?
https://www.safalniveshak.com/how-much-can-you-suffer/
The ‘bezzle’ and
the bull market.
https://novelinvestor.com/the-bezzle-and-the-bull-market/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Adam
Smith’s legacy.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/gop-doesnt-know-smith-from-adam-36c0dd41?mod=opinion_lead_pos7
Inside the black
box of prescription drug pricing.
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