Friday, February 20, 2026

The Morning Call---The canary in the coal mine

 

The Morning Call

 

2/20/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-black-gold-bid-amid-mixed-macro-creaky-consumer-tehran-tensions

 

                Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            A little lower and it gets a lot worse.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/little-lower-and-it-gets-lot-worse

 

            Pain trade not over.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-warns-pain-trade-not-over-despite-historic-hedge-fund-degrossing

 

            Software at the edge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/software-edge-80-or-air-pocket

 

            Goldman on gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/goldman-gold-risk-margin-related-liquidation-sell

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

December GDP QoQ growth was 1.4% versus consensus of +3.0%; the December PCE price index was +3.7% versus +2.8%; the core PCE price index was +2.7% versus +2.6%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/savings-rate-tumbles-4-year-lows-feds-favorite-inflation-indicator-comes-hot

 

December personal income was up 0.3%, in line; December personal spending was up 0.4%, also in line.

 

                          December building permits were up 4.8% versus predictions of +4.3%

                       

                          January pending home sales fell 0.8% versus forecasts of +1.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/19/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-january-2026

 

                        International

 

                          January Japanese CPI was down 0.2% versus expectations of +0.3%.

 

                          January German PPI was -0.1% versus estimates of +0.3%.

 

January UK retail sales were up 1.8% versus projections of +0.2%; ex fuel, they were up 2.0% versus +0.2%.

 

The February flash EU consumer confidence index came in at -12.2 versus consensus of -11.8.

 

The February Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 52.8 versus predictions of 52.0; the flash services PMI was 53.8 versus 53.3; the flash composite PMI was 53.8 versus 52.5; the February German flash manufacturing PMI was 50.7 versus of 49.5; the flash services PMI was 53.4 versus 52.3; the flash composite PMI was 53.1 versus 52.3; the February EU flash manufacturing PMI was 50.8 versus of 50.0; the flash services PMI was 51.8 versus 51.9; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus 51.5; the February UK flash manufacturing PMI was 52.0 versus 51.5; the flash services PMI was 53.9 versus 53.5; the flash composite PMI was 53.9 versus 53.2.

 

                        Other

                       

                          Output surges ahead of employment.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/business-cycle-indicators-output-surges-ahead-of-employment

                       

                          Update on single family and multifamily construction.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/18/single-family-multifamily-construction-bring-on-the-supply-just-as-population-growth-slows-to-a-crawl/

           

AI data centers and electric power production driving industrial production.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/ai-data-center-and-electricity-supply.html

           

                          The Year of the Horse.

                          4724: The Year Of The Fire Horse

 

            Overnight News

 

Of the 425 S&P 500 companies to have reported so far this earnings season, more than 74% have beaten analysts’ estimates, while nearly 21% have missed. 

 

            Inflation

 

              Inflation may be down, but so is affordability.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-cost-of-living/?srnd=homepage-americas

           

              Is a price war in AI about to begin?

              https://www.ft.com/content/37c91e08-d13a-45a7-a3a7-acb43fa5522e

 

            The Financial System

 

              The canary in the coal mine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/canary-coal-mine-just-froze-here-what-really-happening-blue-owl

           

     Investing

 

            Expected future S&P earnings.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/02/winter-2026-snapshot-of-expected-future.html

 

            More positives than negatives.

            On the Other Hand - Carson Group

 

            Past drawdowns versus the current market.

            The Dirty Dozen Equity Drawdowns Versus the Current Market - Carson Group

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Department of Homeland Security data on deported immigrants.

            https://www.cato.org/blog/5-ice-detainees-have-violent-convictions-73-no-convictions

           

                        The biggest financial scandal in human history.

            https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/hotlines/is-this-the-greatest-financial-scandal-in-human-history/

 

            The grift economy is going mainstream.

            https://yourbrainonmoney.substack.com/p/everything-is-pretty-much-a-scam

 

            Calculating your social security breakeven age.

            https://alhambrainvestments.com/what-is-my-social-security-break-even-age/

 

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