The Morning Call
2/6/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-bitcoin-big-tech-bloodbath-continues-bonds-joltd
Note: the S&P
traded down to its 100 DMA (~6794) and bounced slightly (6798). Clearly, the
selloff isn’t positive (although holding its 100 DMA is). In addition, (1) the
short term narrative [see above] is anything but upbeat and (2) unfortunately,
the next visible support levels are the 200 DMA which is way down at ~6461 and
the LOWER boundary of the short term uptrend at ~5886. Don’t even ask about the
lower boundary of the S&P intermediate term uptrend. Do I need to say that I
am still in my foxhole? Having said all that, I don’t believe this is anything
more than a healthy much needed correction and I am making my list and checking
it twice.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Goldman
calls the bottom in software.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-calls-bottom-historic-software-rout-heres-why
But
there are still areas of potential weakness.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/deja-vu-getting-dangerous-nasdaq-replays-2025-breakdown
The
bottom in gold?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-cleans-out-excess-without-killing-trend
A positive ‘January
effect’ indicator.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The December job
openings report (JOLTS) showed 6.5 million vacancies versus forecasts of 7
million.
https://www.ft.com/content/378fb2e9-6575-4da2-9769-13cf6bc499ad
International
December Japanese
household spending fell 2.9% versus expectations of -2.0%; the December
preliminary leading economic indicators came in at 110.2 versus 110.3.
The December
German trade balance was +E17.1 billion versus estimates of +E14.0 billion; December
industrial production declined 1.9% versus +0.3%.
Other
Recent revisions render ADP’s private payroll
report useless.
January vehicle sales fall to three year low.
Latest Q4 GDP nowcast.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-growth-still-expected-for-delayed-us-q4-gdp-report/
100 year look at marginal tax rates.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/how-low-are-taxes-today-a-100-year-look-at-us-tax-policy?post=555277
Monetary
Policy
Eliminate the regional Fed walls.
Realigning Fed
policy. (note that this article is by Peter Navarro, an ardent Trumpite and a
leading contributor to the Trump tariff policies. He makes some good points
about mistakes the Fed has made and how a different monetary policy could help
the US economy. But the notions that [1] inflation ‘is’ declining {versus ‘has’
declined} and [2] tariffs have been a major positive are not exactly correct.)
Fiscal
Policy
The $18 trillion ‘investment’ hoax.
https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-eighteen-trillion-dollar-hoax
Tariffs
Farm
lobby sends damning letter to congress.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/farm-lobby-sends-damning-letter-to-congress-about-trumps-tariffs/
(Though its appears Trump has gotten the message.)
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-soy-surge-tests-brazils-supply-ceiling
And manufacturers aren’t much happier.
Kevin
Warsh
Citadel on Warsh.
Investing
Twelve ways politics have confounded investors.
https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/12-ways-politics-has-confounded-and-confused-investors/
What we do when stock prices go up (a lot).
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2026/02/04/what-we-do-when-things-go-up-a-lot/
Dispersion in the credit markets.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/05/dispersion
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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