The Morning Call---The debate over AI displacement

 

The Morning Call

 

2/13/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/commodities-crypto-crushed-tech-wreck-rolls-goldman-sees-complete-lack-willingness-btfd

 

            Note: the S&P finished back below the former all-time high and its 50 DMA and is

close to challenging its 100 DMA (~6810). And it did so after making a lower high---though given the recent see sawing of the index that is not as ominous as it could be. My bottom line remains that the buyers and sellers are in a pitched battle with no winner yet apparent. A confirmed break either below the 100 DMA or above the former all time high would be an indicator of such. Until then, patience and follow through.          

             

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The best defense against continued volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/amid-ai-disruption-anxiety-top-goldman-trader-outlines-cleanest-hedge-board

 

            Remember fear?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/remember-fear

 

            The same setup as last year---which didn’t end well.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/same-setup-last-year-and-it-didnt-end-well

           

            Stocks hate rising bond volatility---and it is.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-hates-rising-bond-vol-and-move-just-woke

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          January existing home sales fell 8.4% versus estimates of -3.4%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/02/12/existing-home-sales-sink-8-4-in-january

 

January CPI came in at +0.2% versus expectations of +0.3%; core CPI was +0.3%, in line.

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-core-cpi-tumbles-slowest-4-years

 

                        International

 

The December EU trade balance was +E12.6 billion versus consensus of +E12.0 billion; Q4 preliminary employment change was +0.2% versus +0.1%; Q4 2^nd estimate of GDP growth was +0.3%. in line.

 

January German PPI was +0.9% versus predictions of +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          The fallacy of trading on BLS statistics.

                          https://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/2026/02/12/why_are_you_still_trading_on_the_jobs_report_1164376.html

 

                          But here is one of my favorite analysts’ try.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/02/leading-sector-benchmark-job-revisions.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Without reform, healthcare will swallow the federal budget.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/02/12/without_reform_healthcare_will_swallow_the_federal_budget_1164347.html

 

              The economic boost brought by full expensing.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/02/12/the_unsung_economic_boost_brought_by_full_expensing_1164370.html

 

              Reform social security.

              https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/to-save-social-security-stop-subsidizing-wealthy-retirees/

 

            Tariffs

 

              Global trade is leaving the US behind.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-12/on-trade-and-tariffs-the-world-is-moving-on-from-the-us?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Financial System

 

HELOCs, mortgages, housing-debt-to-income-ratio, serious delinquencies, and foreclosures in Q4 2025.

               https://wolfstreet.com/2026/02/12/here-come-the-helocs-mortgages-housing-debt-to-income-ratio-serious-delinquencies-and-foreclosures-in-q4-2025/

 

     Investing

 

            What drives gold volatility?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/12/looking-through-golds-volatility

 

            The value of forecasts from the betting market.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/new-research-highlights-value-of-forecasts-from-betting-markets/

 

            Bubble fears in the bond market.

            https://www.ft.com/content/e87f04d5-9a19-4776-b0bc-3a78770be894

 

            Goldman on the collapsing software stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/best-trade-2026-how-profit-ongoing-collapse-software-stocks

 

            Counterpoint.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ai-panic-crushes-software-market-dead-wrong

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Conveniencing ourselves to irrelevance.

            https://om.co/2026/02/09/conveniencing-ourselves-to-irrelevance/

 

            Remembering Lincoln.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/02/a-genius-for-friendship-12.php

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2026/02/remembering-mr-lincoln-15.php

 

 

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