The Morning Call
2/5/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
Note: the S&P
was lower again yesterday, closing right on its 50 DMA. It has bounced off that
level twice in the recent past---a good sign that it could do it again. If not,
the 100 DMA (~6794) is the next visible support level. Complicating the
technical picture is the Dow’s performance as well as overall better breadth
than the S&P’s pin action would suggest. Indeed, our portfolios, which are value
based, had a very good day yesterday. So, my bottom line hasn’t changed---there
are too many cross currents to come out of my foxhole. Patience and follow
through.
Wednesday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum (notice the difference in breadth between the
NYSE and the NASDAQ).
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Tech cracks, stress
explodes.
Bulls getting shocked.
Too
Many Bulls Getting Shocked As AI Turns On Humans
The latest from Morgan Stanley’s desk.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 231,000 versus predictions of 214,000.
The January services
PMI was 52.7 versus estimates of 52.5; the January composite PMI was 53.0
versus 52.8.
The January ISM
services index was 53.8 versus projections of 54.3.
International
December German factory
orders were up 7.5% versus consensus of -4.2%.
December EU retail sales fell 0.5% versus
expectations of +0.2%.
The January EU construction
PMI was 45.3 versus forecasts of 48.0; the January German construction PMI was
44.7 versus 50.5; the January UK construction PMI was 46.4 versus 42.5.
Other
December median household income.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/02/median-household-income-in-december-2025.html
More tough times for agriculture.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/02/more-tough-times-for-us-agriculture
Commercial
mortgage backed securities delinquency rate spikes to record high.
Monetary
Policy
It’s
money supply, stupid.
https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/simplify-simplify-simplify
BOE and ECB leave rates unchanged.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eur-flat-ecb-leaves-rates-unch-cable-drops-boes-dovish-hold
Fiscal
Policy
Will republicans fall for inflationary
populism?
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/will-republicans-fall-for-inflationary-populism/
Inflation
Will the sugar high from tax refunds stoke
inflation?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/will-a-sugar-high-of-huge-tax-refunds-in-april-stoke-inflation/
Tariffs
When tariffs hit home.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/when-tariffs-hit-home?post=555017
The
Financial System
The Treasury market is in dangerous territory.
https://www.ft.com/content/c1229d2e-b871-4419-b9ed-7a9589c5a296
Investing
Market cycles potentially driving 2026
returns.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/02/04/market-cycles-driving-2026-returns
Wall Street’s
rotation into value carries a dot.com warning.
Gold bulls crawl
out of the bunker.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/few-old-gold-bulls-crawl-back-out-bunker
Nuclear nuggets.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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