The Morning Call
1/30/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-battered-everything-else-bounces-back-early-bloodbath
Note: after a
volatile day, the S&P remained above its former all-time high long enough
to confirm a breakout (for a second time and on questionable breadth). So, this
one isn’t anymore impressive than the former, meaning that there is probably still
more digestion coming before a major move higher (assuming that there is one)---but
that is just me speculating. The key, as always, is follow through. In my
opinion, this is not yet a Market to be investing in.
Another yo yo day.
Another
Yo-Yo Day In The Markets
Déjà vu, all over again.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everything-goes-again
More from Morgan
Stanley.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-quants-2-drop-will-trigger1-45bn-forced-selling
More from Nomura.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
December PPI was
up 0.5% versus estimates of +0.2%; ex food and energy, it was up 0.4% versus +0.3%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-producer-prices-unexpectedly-surged-december
International
The December
Japanese unemployment rate was 2.6%, in line; preliminary December industrial
production was down 0.2%, in line; preliminary December retail sales were down 2.0%
versus +0.3%; December YoY housing starts were down 1.3% versus -4.4%; December
YoY construction orders were up 20.2% versus -3.0%; January YoY CPI was up
1.5%, in line.
Q4 German flash
GDP growth was +0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%; January GDP growth was up
0.1% versus -0.1%; the January unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line.
Q4 EU flash GDP growth
was +0.3% versus forecasts of +0.2%; the December unemployment rate was 6.2%
versus 6.3%.
Other
A closer look at yesterday’s weekly jobless
claims number.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/jobless-claims-positive-regime-change.html
Overnight
News
Another
Trump Alfred Hitchcock surprise ending, picking Kevin Warsh for Fed chair---the
most hawkish of the four candidates. (The Market may not like this, but it is potentially
the best thing that could happen long term for the economy.)
Monetary
Policy
Dear Mr. Powell, are you sure that the Fed is
in a good place?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/dear-jerome-powell-are-you-sure-the-fed-is-in-a-good-place/
Fiscal
Policy
The perils of a falling dollar.
Update on shutdown.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/shutdown-approaches-schumer-white-house-attempt-11th-hour-deal
Inflation
M2 growth fuels
strong economic growth with low inflation. (This analyst is my favorite
economic optimist. In this article’s case, while the declining rate of M2
growth is still consistent with sound economic growth and unquestionably a plus
for a declining rate of inflation, his own chart shows that M2 growth is still
not back to a rate consistent with 2% inflation [the Fed’s purported goal].)
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2026/01/slow-m2-growth-fuels-stronger-economic.html
Counterpoint.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-feds-job-isnt-getting-any-easier/
The
Dollar
Dollar downer. (This
is a progressive blog. While I agree with most of the analysis of the causes of
a weakening dollar, I think that the ‘rule of law’ point is political not economic.)
Counterpoint.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/currenciesforex/the-dollar-is-collapsing-is-it?post=553652
Investing
How inflation uncertainty
may impact your bond portfolio.
Rate
Expectations Update: How Inflation Uncertainty May Impact Your Bond Portfolio -
Carson Group
Should we worry
about a gold crash? (as you can tell by the name of the organization the author
works for, he is talking his book. That said, as he points out the economic
conditions that have been a precursor to a selloff in gold don’t exist right
now. On the other hand, if gold simply returns to the upper
boundary of its short term uptrend, it would fall 20% from current levels.)
https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/should-we-worry-about-a-gold-crash?post=553651
Why is there less junk’
in the high yield bond market?
https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/why-there-is-lot-less-junk-high-yield-bond-market
News on Stocks in Our Portfolio
What
I am reading today
Friday
morning humor.
Promises
Kept: Here Are The 9 Biggest Accomplishments Of The Republican Congress |
Babylon Bee
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