https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/panic-out-panic-heavy-ctashort-gamma-selling-followed-largest-two-day-buy-months
An Analysis of Daily Events that Impact Your Money
Wednesday, November 26, 2025
Friday, November 21, 2025
The Morning Call---Have a great Thanksgiving
The Morning Call
Including four must read articles
11/21/25
I am taking Thanksgiving week off. I hope you have a very happy holiday.
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mega-caps-crypto-pumped-dumped-ahead-largest-nov-opex-history
Quote: Including today (dating back to since 1957)
there have been 8 instances where the S&P 500 gaps up more than 1% only to
reverse and close in the red.
On the bright side here is S&P 500’s
average performance after these 8 instances: 1 day later +233bps, 1 week later
+288bps, 1 month later +472bps.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Three record breaking streaks are over. How
worried should we be?
The latest from
Citadel.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/week-decides-year-citadel-flows-guru-says-seasonals-kick-today
The latest from Goldman.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/whats-behind-todays-brutal-selloff-goldmans-technical-checklist
Crypto flush.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
October existing home sales were up 1.2%
versus consensus of +0.9%.
The November
Kansas City manufacturing index was 18 versus projections of 12.
International
October UK retail
sales fell 1.7% versus predictions of +0.1%; ex fuel, they were down 1.0%
versus -0.2%; November consumer confidence was -19, in line.
The October
Japanese CPI was up 0.4% versus forecasts of -0.1%; the October trade balance
was -Y231.8 billion versus -Y250.0 billion.
The November
Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus expectations of 49.0; the
flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.0
versus 50.6; the November German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.4 versus 50.1;
the flash services PMI was 52.7 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 52.1
versus 53.2; the November EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus 50.9; the
flash services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.3; the flash composite PMI was 52.4
versus 52.2; the November UK flash manufacturing PMI was 50.2 versus 49.5; the
flash services PMI was 50.5 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.5
versus 52.6.
Other
Output is abundance is affordability.
https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/output-is-abundance-is-affordability
The paradox on prosperity.
A deep dive into
September’s jobs report.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/september-jobs-report-positive-if-stale.html
Recession
Update on big four recession indicators.
The
latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Geopolitics
Ukraine and Europe skeptical of Trump peace
plan.
Investing
How
can we be sure of what we think that we know?
https://investmentecosystem.com/2025/11/13/how-do-we-know/
The crypto bear
market.
https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/the-crypto-bear-market-of-2025-makes-sense-to-me
The dash for trash has been driven by retail
option traders.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Nike (NKE) declared $0.41/share quarterly dividend, 2.5% increase from
prior dividend of $0.40.
Home Depot (HD) declared $2.30/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Cultural
confidence.
What
is wrong with how the economics curriculum is being taught?
https://jamesgmartin.center/2025/11/what-is-wrong-with-economics-education/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
Thursday, November 20, 2025
The Morning Call---There is no such thing as a 'K' shaped economy
The Morning Call
Including five must read articles
11/20/25
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
Wednesday
in the technical stats. (note the continuing breadth problem)
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
What’s behind the
recent selloff?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/three-reasons-why-everything-has-been-selling-once
The latest from Goldman.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-rally-stick-heres-what-goldmans-delta-one-desk-watching
Tokyo bond quake.
(note: a reader pointed out that I had omitted a key word [yield] in a post
yesterday regarding the Japanese bond. My apologies)
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/tokyo-bondquake-bond-volatility-screams-isnt-contained
Dollar breakout.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-breakout-bears-trapped-dxy-closes-above-200-day
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September nonfarm
payrolls grew 119,000 versus forecasts of 50,000; the September unemployment
rate was 4.4% versus 4.3%; September average hourly earnings were +0.2%, in
line.
The November
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -1.7 versus predictions of
-1.0.
International
September EU YoY
construction output fell 0.3% versus estimates of +1,7%.
October German PPI
came in at +0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.
The November UK
industrial trends orders index was -37 versus forecasts of -30.
Other
There is no such thing as a ‘K’ shaped
economy.
Overnight
News
Canada and the US
still have a chance to reach an agreement to reduce tariffs despite last
month’s diplomatic blowup, Trump’s envoy in Ottawa said.
BofA Total Card Spending (w/e 15th Nov) +1.5% (prev.
+4.2%, Oct avg. +2.4%); notes that "as we approach the holiday seasons,
spending per household on holiday items is tracking significantly ahead of 2023
and 2024 levels".
Monetary
Policy
The Fed released
the minutes of its October FOMC meeting---showing a divided Fed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-32
The argument for a December rate cut.
https://assets.realclear.com/files/2025/11/2804_sharplydivided_fed.pdf
US
repo rates still high as liquidity tightens.
Fiscal
Policy
Update on the social security fund: balance,
income, outgo, deficit.
Inflation
More on home affordability.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/rejoinder-to-comments-on-house-price-affordability
Recession
The
employment stats that help point to recession.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/11/19/payroll-playbook-gauge-recession-risk
Geopolitics
US pressuring Ukraine
to end war.
Investing
Why the Fed’s
December rate cut decision isn’t the Market’s biggest worry.
A decision a day is not good for your
portfolio’s health.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/11/18/a-decision-a-day/
Bear markets are
educational.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/why-we-could-use-a-good-long-bear-market-73997cb7?st=zBBYpe
Outlook for
S&P dividends in November.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html
Bearish on
bitcoin.
US government to
buy ten nuclear reactors. In addition to
the stocks mentioned, there is a nuclear ETF: NUKZ. (this is not a recommendation to buy)
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/national-emergency-us-govt-buy-10-large-new-nuclear-reactors
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Ten
things we can learn from Warren Buffett that have nothing to do with money.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
The Morning Call---The math of expected AI earnings
The Morning Call
Including six must read articles
11/19/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-bonds-bid-jobs-data-sparks-rise-rate-cut-odds
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The surge in fear.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/surge-fear
Jefferies traders
see near term gains.
Stocks getting oversold.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/stuck-in-a-downtrend-but-getting-oversold?post=538326
Global selloff is
about risk reduction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-stock-selloff-about-risk-reduction-so-far
Gold holds $4,000
again.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-4k-line-holds-again
Bitcoin ETFs see
major outflows.
The
Japanese long bond is surging to the upside. Historically, that is good for
gold and crypto.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 5.2% while purchase applications were down 2.3%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 6.1% versus +5.9% in the prior week.
The August trade
balance was -$59.6 billion versus expectations of -$63.0 billion.
August factory
orders rose 1.4%, in line.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/11/august-factory-orders-rebounded-from.html
The November
housing index came in at 38 versus consensus of 37.
International
September Japanese
machine tool orders were up 4.2% versus projections of +0.5%.
October UK CPI was
up 0.4% versus estimates of +0.5%; core CPI was +0.3% versus +0.2%; October EU
CPI was +0.2%, in line.
Other
A breakdown of
construction spending.
Overnight
News
The Trump
administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a
new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials.
Monetary
Policy
Signs
of a major rethink about the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.
The question is, is the above good economic
policy?
Or will
it actually happen?
Fiscal
Policy
The
prescription for the next banking crisis.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/business/fed-bowman-bank-oversight.html
Inflation
Reforming healthcare would be a major step in
improving ‘affordability’.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/newt-gingrich-simplest-way-make-american-life-affordable-again
Affordability mythology.
https://tomknighton.substack.com/p/affordability-mythology
A look at housing affordability.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/11/grampa-simpson-on-whining-whiners-about-house-affordability
Recession
This is a tad hyperbolic,
but the point is still there: increasing foreclosures and auto repossessions.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/was-major-red-flag-2008-and-now-it-happening-again
Tariffs
The downside to Trump’s tariff policies.
Investing
Investors waking
to affordability and inflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-are-waking-other-ai-affordability-inflation
Another word of
caution.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/opinion/economy-ai-jobs-stocks.html
Things are not as
bad as many fear.
The
AI-Led Pullback: Recalibrating The Odds Of Three Scenarios
A snapshot of
expected future S&P earnings.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/11/fall-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future-s.html
The
math of expected AI earnings.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/simple-macro-ai-rithmetic-doesnt-add-goldman
Gold under
pressure.
Results of the latest Fund Manager Survey.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
BlackRock (BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Another
reason why our education system needs reform.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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