The Morning Call--The Fed's end game

 

The Morning Call

 

3/26/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bond-yields-black-gold-bounce-amid-big-auction-bad-data

 

            The short volatility trade is back.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-short-vol-trade-is-back-why-some-investors-think-its-driving-tranquility-in-markets-74fb253e?st=upnpo9pt8uizvja&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Tech exec’s selling shares.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/thiel-bezos-and-zuckerberg-dump-shares-amid-surging-insider-ratio-ominous-sign-bull-market

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                          February new home sales fell 0.3% versus forecasts of an increase of 3.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/25/new-home-sales-fall-february-2024

 

February durable goods orders were up 1.4% versus projections of up 1.1%; ex transportation, they were up 0.5% versus +0.4%.

 

 The March Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -14.4 versus   expectations of -8.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/25/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-march

 

                        International

 

The April German consumer confidence index was -27.4 versus consensus of -27.9.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The tug of war between big tech and the Fed.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/business/ai-federal-reserve-stock-market.html

 

              The Fed’s end game.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/albert-edwards-ice-age-endgame

             

 Fed rate cuts on shakier ground.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/priced-fed-rate-cuts-are-shakier-ground-uk-and-europe

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Your new federal budget.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/03/25/implied_by_the_biden_budget_is_record_tax_hikes_1020067.html

 

              The retirement crisis.

              Retirement Crisis Faces Government And Corporate Pensions - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Civil Strife

 

              The Trump Derangement Syndrome.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/election-2024-its-psychopathology-stupid

 

              Baltimore police force collapses.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/baltimore-implodes-police-force-collapses-only-three-officers-patrolled-major-district

 

                          Harvard to screen ecoterrorism movie.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/harvard-promoting-domestic-ecoterrorism-new-movie-about-blowing-american-pipeline

 

     Bottom line

 

            Financial conditions are very healthy.

            https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/financial-conditions-look-excellent.html

 

            Why the inverted yield curve matters.

            https://www.axios.com/2024/03/25/what-the-perennially-inverted-yield-curve-means

 

            Even though they have been burned before, investors are again betting on rate cuts.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-24/burned-before-bond-markets-resume-rate-cutting-trades-worldwide?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Is Bitcoin invincible?

            https://unherd.com/2024/03/five-reasons-bitcoin-is-invincible/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            How did Jesus’ final days unfold?

            How did Jesus' final days unfold? Scholars are still debating (nationalgeographic.com)

 

 

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