The Morning Call---The Fed and the Market back in cinque---at least for now

 

The Morning Call

 

3/19/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-black-gold-surge-bonds-bitcoin-purged-ahead-fed

 

            Record low options skew shows investor confidence.

            https://www.ft.com/content/7314c9c3-318e-4ed2-935b-1dbfcbe95860

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

February housing starts rose 10.7% versus estimates of +7.0%; February preliminary building permits were up 1.9% versus -0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-starts-and-permits-surged-february-despite-plunging-rate-cut-odds

 

                          The Mrach NAHB housing index was 51 versus predictions of 48.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/18/nahb-housing-market-index-builder-confidence-rises-to-eight-month-high

 

                        International

 

January Japanese industrial production fell 6.7% versus consensus of -7.5%; capacity utilization was down 7.9% versus -0.2%.

 

The March EU economic sentiment index was 33.5 versus expectations of 28.0; the March German economic sentiment index was 31.7 versus 30.5; the March German current conditions index was 80.5 versus -82.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          February LA Port traffic increased significantly.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/la-port-traffic-increased-sharply-year.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Most now believe ‘higher for longer’.

              https://www.ft.com/content/9d58ff6a-c6c4-4740-b3aa-5699a865c7f4

 

              But also believe cuts are in store in 2024.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/18/fed-and-others-to-make-major-progress-on-rates-this-year-bis-chief.html

 

The Fed and the Market’s expectations are back in cinque; what it will take for them to remain there.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-18/fed-rates-alignment-with-market-expectations-is-welcome-but-not-enough?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

              What the end of Japan’s negative interest rate regime means.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-18/what-the-end-of-japan-s-negative-interest-rates-means?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The best contrarian indicator.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/03/15/the-best-contrarian-indicator/

 

            Inflation

 

I include this not for its conclusion but for its discussion of the differences in the math used to calculate CPI versus PCE.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/03/18/forget-cpi-zoom-pce-price-index-particularly-core-measure

 

            The Financial System

 

$1 trillion in maturing commercial real estate loans this year could spell trouble for small banks.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/1-trillion-2024-cre-maturities-could-lead-hundreds-bank-failures

 

            The coronavirus

 

              What the data says about pandemic school closures.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/18/upshot/pandemic-school-closures-data.html

 

              Covid lessons learned.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/covid-lessons-learned.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Have you guys lost your mind?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/german-lawmaker-blistering-ukraine-speech-parliament-have-you-all-lost-your-minds

 

              Putin warns NATO and US.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-warns-full-scale-ww3-victory-speech-should-west-send-troops

 

     Bottom line

 

            Household equity allocations suggest caution.

            Household Equity Allocations Suggests Caution - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            This is gonna hurt.

            https://allstarcharts.com/this-will-cause-so-much-pain/

 

            Lessons in the stock market.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/03/20-lessons-from-20-years-of-managing-money/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The vitamin D story

            Hello sunshine: the vitamin D story (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/03/quotation-of-the-day-4579.html

 

            How to change your psychology.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/03/how-to-change-your-psychology.html

 

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