The Morning Call---What is more important Fed plicy or fiscal policy?

 

The Morning Call

 

3/22/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-dollar-gain-good-news-bitcoin-bullion-black-gold-sink

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          February existing home sales rose 9.5% versus estimates of -2.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/21/existing-home-sales-jump-to-highest-level-in-a-year

 

The February leading economic indicators were up 0.1% versus predictions of -0.2%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/21/leading-economic-index-conference-board-february-2024

 

The March flash manufacturing PMI was 52.5 versus consensus of 51.7; the March flash services PMI was 51.7 versus 52.0; the March flash composite PMI was 52.2 versus 51.5.

 

                        International

 

                          February Japanese CPI was 0.0% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

February UK retail sales were flat with March versus forecasts of -0.3%; ex fuel, they were up 0.2% versus -0.1%; the March consumer confidence index was -21 versus -19; the March industrial trend orders index was -18 versus -17.

 

The March German business climate index was 87.8 versus projections of 86.0; the March current conditions index was 88.1 versus 86.8.

 

                        Other

           

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s conundrum.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-feds-conundrum-interest-rates-are-both-too-highand-too-low-f05a9d3a?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Federal debt races towards a record.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/20/us/politics/debt-taxes-budget.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Who is in control? The Fed or Fiscal Policy? (must read)

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/is-the-fed-losing-its-independence

 

             On the other hand, maybe real inflation isn’t nearly as high as the numbers show.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/bofa-should-policy-be-set-on-oer-if.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            An industrial renaissance. A matter of national security.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/03/21/us-industrial-renaissance-matter-national-security

 

            Do magazine covers carry a market signal?

            https://ritholtz.com/2024/03/do-magazine-covers-contain-market-signals/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike press release (NYSE:NKE): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.98 beats by $0.23.

Revenue of $12.43B (+0.3% Y/Y) beats by $130M.

 

FedEx press release (NYSE:FDX): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.86 beats by $0.38.

Revenue of $21.7B (-2.3% Y/Y) misses by $380M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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