The Morning Call---The Fed's predicament

 

The Morning Call

 

3/27/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-gold-gain-soft-data-slumps-trump-stock-jumps

 

            More charts,

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/fed-who-spx-rides-growth-wave

 

            Gold prices and the Fed.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/03/gold-prices-and-fed.html

 

            Time to buy the VIX?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/long-volatility-trade-may-be-widow-maker-no-more

 

            The economy in the charts.

            https://bilello.blog/2024/the-week-in-charts-3-26-24

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 0.7% while purchase applications were down 0.2%.

 

                          The January Case Shiller home price index was -0.1, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/26/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-upward-trend-continues-january-2024

 

The March consumer confidence index was 104.7 versus estimates of 107.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/26/consumer-confidence-inches-down-in-march

 

The March Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -11 versus predictions of -4.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/26/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-slowed-march-2024

 

                        International

 

February Chinese YoY industrial profits were up 10.2% versus consensus of -1.0%.

 

The March EU economic sentiment index came in at 96.3, in line; the March industrial sentiment index was -8.8 versus -9.0; the March services sentiment index was +6.3 versus +7.8; the March consumer confidence index was -14.9, in line.

 

                        Other

           

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s predicament (must read)

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/financial-conditions-butt-heads-borrowing-conditions

 

              Don’t mess with success.

              https://www.ft.com/content/59827415-c1e8-4e8c-b43c-f78411443fad

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Deficits, inflation and conflict.

  https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/deficits-inflation-and-conflict

 

            Recession

 

              Why no recession, so far?

              https://www.econlib.org/why-no-recession-so-far/

 

            Civil Strife

 

              The problem is us.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/canaries-americas-coal-mine

 

     Bottom line

 

            Rational exuberance?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/03/24/weekly-market-pulse-rational-exuberance/?src=news

 

            Perhaps not.

            Technical Measures And Valuations. Does Any Of It Matter? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Negative equity risk premium estimates persist.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/negative-equity-risk-premium-estimates-persist-for-us-equities/

 

            PIMCO fears inflation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pimco-pulls-back-us-treasury-exposure-fears-inflation-fiscal-folly

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Smart words from smart people.

            https://collabfund.com/blog/smart-words-from-smart-people/

 

            US energy efficiency.

            https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/us-energy-efficiency-has-soared.html

           

            Jesus’ tomb.

            Exclusive: Age of Jesus Christ’s purported tomb revealed (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/03/quotes-that-should-be-remembered-forever

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.