The Morning Call
3/21/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/semis-surge-volatility-crumbles-and-bulls-charge
Inflation is back,
baby.
https://allstarcharts.com/inflation-is-back-baby/
But will a real
assets portfolio help our performance?
Persistence and performance.
https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/persistence-performance
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
fell 1.6%while purchase applications were down 1.2%.
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 210,000 versus projections of 215,000.
The March Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index came in at +3.2 versus estimates of -2.3.
International
The February
Japanese trade balance was -Y379.4 billion versus predictions of -Y810.2
billion; the March flash manufacturing PMI was 48.2, in line; the March flash
services PMI was 54.9 versus 53.4; the March flash composite PMI was 52.3
versus 50.9.
February German
PPI came in at -0.4% versus forecasts of -0.1%; the March flash manufacturing
PMI was 41.6 versus 43.1; the March flash services PMI was 49.8 versus 48.9;
the March flash composite PMI was 47.4 versus 47.0.
February UK CPI
was +0.6% versus expectations of +0.7%; the February UK core CPI was also +0.6%
versus +0.7%; the March flash manufacturing PMI was 49.9 versus 47.8; the March
flash services PMI was 53.4 versus 53.8; the March flash composite PMI was 52.9
versus 53.1.
The March EU
consumer confidence index was -14.9 versus consensus of -15.0; the March flash
manufacturing PMI was 45.7 versus 47.0; the March flash services PMI was 51.1
versus 50.5; the March flash composite PMI was 49.9 versus 49.7.
Other
February architectural
billings continue to slow albeit and a more modest pace.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/aia-moderation-in-slowdown-in-business.html
The
Fed
The FOMC ended it
much anticipated March meeting yesterday, leaving rates unchanged---as expected.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/fomc-statement-no-change-to-policy.html
With the ‘dot plot’
ever so slightly more hawkish (i.e., stronger growth, higher inflation).
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/03/fomc-projections-and-press-conference.html
More analysis.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-14
Then, Powell delivered an Alfred Hitchcock ending.
Yesterday’s FOMC statement,
dot plot and Powell’s presser is a perfect example of why I am so cynical and
so disbelieving of anything that the Fed does/says and why Harvard economist
Greg Mankiw says ‘stop having news conferences’. It is confusing at best, misleading at worst
and confirms my belief that these guys don’t have a f**king clue what they are
doing. My bottom line from this clown show is to start
worrying more about inflation, and less about recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/did-you-spot-gorilla-feds-meeting-room
(must read)
The ECB could cut rates in June if inflation
continues to slow.
The Bank of
England leaves rate unchanged.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-holds-rates-525-says-things-moving-right-direction
Bottom line
Bitcoin up.
https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/bitcoin-up-stocks-down1/rcm
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet
Research Systems press release (NYSE:FDS): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$4.22 beats by
$0.34.
Revenue
of $545.9M (+6.0% Y/Y) misses by
$1.43M.
Accenture press release (NYSE:ACN): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.77 beats by
$0.10.
Revenue
of $15.8B (-0.1% Y/Y) misses by
$40M.
Accenture
(NYSE:ACN) declares $1.29/share quarterly
dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
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