Thursday, March 28, 2024

The Morning Call--CBO director warns of growing debt problem

 

The Morning Call

 

3/28/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumpnpump-continues-massive-squeeze-lifts-small-caps-month-end-bonds-bullion-bid

 

            Q1 pension rebalancing the largest since Q2 2023.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/largest-rebalance-going-back-june-2023

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 210,000 versus estimates of 215,000.

 

Q4 GDP growth was 3.4% versus expectations of 3.2%; real consumer spending was up 3.3% versus +3.0%; the PCE price index was up 1.8%, in line.

 

                        International

 

Q4 UK GDP growth was -0.3%, in line; Q4 business investment was up 1.4% versus +1.5%; February auto production was up 14.6% versus up 17.0%.

 

February German retail sales fell 1.9% versus forecasts of up 0.3%; the March unemployment rate was 5.9%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              M2 update—still positive.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/03/m2-updatestill-looking-good.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              CBO director warns of growing debt problem (must read)

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cbo-director-warns-debt-market-meltdown-us-debt-unprecedented-trajectory

 

              Europe has the same problem.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/expect-financial-crisis-europe-france-epicenter

 

              We can’t wish away the looming entitlements crisis.

              https://reason.com/2024/03/27/biden-and-trump-try-to-wish-away-the-looming-entitlement-crisis/

 

            Inflation

 

              Oil to $100/barrel.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-warns-putin-can-push-oil-100-september-pressure-biden-ahead-elections

 

              A brief history of inflation in revolutionary France.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-good

 

            Recession

 

              Two recession indicators that failed.

              https://www.tker.co/p/when-the-recession-indicators-failed

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The economic growth potential of AI.

            https://climateerinvest.blogspot.com/2024/03/professor-nordhaus-are-we-approaching.html

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/03/quotation-of-the-day-4587.html

 

            The need to reboot civics instruction.

            https://www.the74million.org/article/the-need-to-reboot-and-reemphasize-civics-instruction-has-never-been-greater/

           

 

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