The Morning Call
3/1/24
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
The risk-on
momentum prevails.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-momentum-prevails-as-february-winds-down/
Investors finding
it pointless to be bearish.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investors-finding-it-increasingly-pointless-be-bearish
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
January pending home sales declined 4.9%
versus consensus of up 1.0%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/29/pending-home-sales-fall-january-2024
The February Chicago PMI came in at 44 versus
projections of 48.
The February
Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at +3 versus estimates of -2.
International
The January
Japanese unemployment rate was 2.4%, in line; the February manufacturing PMI
was 47.2, also in line; February consumer confidence was 39.1 versus 38.3.
The January EU
unemployment rate was 6.4%, in line; the February manufacturing PMI was 42.5
versus 42.3; February CPI was +0.6% versus +0.5%.
The February
Chinese manufacturing PMI was 49.1, in line; the February nonmanufacturing PMI
was 51.4 versus 50.8; the February composite PMI was 50.9 versus 50.6; the
February Caixin (small manufacturers) manufacturing PMI was 50.9 versus 50.6.
The February
German manufacturing PMI was 42.5 versus predictions of 42.3.
Other
The benefits of free trade.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/really-not-quite-grasping-the-economic-basics-here
Employment in right-to-work states versus non
right-to-work states.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/the-daily-chart-another-red-blue-dividing-line.php
The
Fed
The ECB and QT.
Fed officials
continue to emphasize ‘data dependent.’ And
right now, they can afford to be circumspect about this policy because the Markets
are cutting the Fed lots of slack, i.e., pushing equity prices higher as the
number of potential rate cuts shrinks. And investors may continue to do through
the whole ‘higher for longer’ strategy. However, history says that the Fed will
ease in the face of a down market irrespective of the economic backdrop.
Inflation
Does gold’s low volatility suggest a rise in inflation?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/low-volatility-gold-calm-inflation-storm
Is inflation starting to reappear in Europe?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-rate-cuts-jeopardy-disinflation-grinds-halt
Recession
Still no recession.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/gdp-estd-gdo-gdp
Update on big four recession indicators.
Real disposable income per capita.
The
Financial System
The pros of the ballooning shadow banking
system.
https://www.ft.com/content/ceeaa74c-b03c-481c-ba15-96f233456ab8
Geopolitics
These guys are
dangerous. Even if Russia conquered all of Ukraine, why would Russia be at war
with NATO? Ukraine has no mutual defense pact with NATO.
Bottom line
BofA: the S&P
is egregiously expensive.
The ‘dumb money’
is almost back to even.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dumb-money-almost-back-even-making-same-mistakes
How to use gold in
your portfolio.
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/how-use-gold-your-portfolio
Market
herding is everywhere, not just in US.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $0.98/share quarterly dividend, in line with
previous.
What
I am reading today
The
wild west of NBA jump balls.
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2024/2/21/24074472/jump-ball-rules-strategy-chicanery-history
On Hayek’s Road to Serfdom.
https://lawliberty.org/still-trudging-towards-serfdom/
Friday morning humor.
https://babylonbee.com/news/9-surprising-findings-from-joe-bidens-physical
Beware of Google’s new AI product,
Gemini.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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