The Morning Call---No asset class is remotely ready for inflation.

 

The Morning Call

 

2/29/24

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-slip-crypto-rips-dips-record-etf-volumes

            Note: the S&P again managed to stay above the upper boundary of that wedge formation---by               the barest of margins. Still that has to be taken as a positive. That said, investors are clearly                     trying to figure out just how positive to be. This is not a time to be committing funds.

 

    

            Goldman Sachs’ funds flow guru warns equities have entered a period of euphoria.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/return-yolo-was-not-my-bingo-card-feb-goldman-flows-guru-warns-us-equities-have-entered

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 215,000 versus predictions of 210,000.

 

January personal income was up 1.0% versus estimates of +0.4%; personal spending was up 0.2%, in line.

 

January PCE was up 0.3%, in line; core PCE was up 0.4%, also in line.

 

                        International

                       

  January Japanese industrial production fell 7.5% versus expectations of   down 7.3%; January retail sales were up 0.8% versus 0.6%; January YoY housing starts were down 7.5% versus -7.7%; January YoY construction orders was up 9.1% versus +4.0%.

 

January German retail sales declined 0.4% versus forecasts of +0.5%; the February unemployment rate was 5.9% versus 5.8%; the February preliminary CPI was up 0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Steve Forbes thinks that the Fed should lower rates at its next meeting.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM91ujDE3dY&list=PLpndQ-APwbNXDxxBubkkkDQrTaJXt_ix0

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              (2^nd est.) Q4 GDP was up $334 billion while government debt was up $834 billion.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-gdp-grew-334-billion-q4-growth-cost-834-billion-debt

 

            Inflation

 

              How we measure inflation is all wrong.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/we-are-still-measuring-inflation-all-wrong-2

 

              The market capitalization of the new home market fell in January.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/market-cap-of-us-new-homes-decreases-to.html

 

              More data on home prices.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/27/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-feb-2024-update-20-city-index-drops-for-2nd-month-from-double-top-biggest-price-drops-from-2022-peak-san-francisco-seattle-portland-denver-phoenix/

 

 

           Recession

 

             The latest Q1 GDP growth nowcast.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-stays-low-with-moderate-q1-growth-nowcast/

 

                Government Shutdown

 

              Congressional leaders announce deal to avert shutdown.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/heres-what-will-be-affected-during-impending-government-shutdown

 

             The Financial System

 

              Flawed valuation threatens $1.7 trillion private credit boom.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-28/how-private-credit-market-boom-is-hiding-potential-valuation-problems?srnd=homepage-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Pension plan sells Manhattan office tower for $1.00.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-could-be-next-largest-canadian-pension-fund-sells-manhattan-office-tower-1

           

                Civil Strife

 

              The government and CBS.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/cbs-gov-con.php

 

Hey, wait a minute. What is good for the goose should be good for the gander: FBI wants reporter to surrender over January 6^th reporting.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/blaze-news-investigative-writer-steve-baker-says-fbi-wants-him-to-self-surrender-friday-in-dallas-over-his-jan-6-reporting

                       

     Bottom line

 

              No asset class is remotely ready for inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/no-asset-class-remotely-ready-more-inflation

 

            The downside to trading.

            https://newsletter.rationalwalk.com/p/too-clever-by-half

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Leaked Russian files outline criteria for nuclear strike.

            https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3d-4554-aee5-50a730b306b7

 

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4559.html

 

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