The Morning Call---The Fed and fiscal policy assure the dollar's decline

 

The Morning Call

 

2/28/24

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-shorts-bitcoin-black-gold-bid-yield-curve-bear-steepens

 

Note: the S&P held above the upper boundary of that wedge formation---by the hair on its chinny, chinny chin. Await follow through.

 

            The tech wreck continues.

            https://allstarcharts.com/the-tech-wreck-continues/

 

            A sell signal?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/deja-vu-very-similar-set-last-summers-perfect-sell-signal

 

            The Fed and fiscal policy assure the dollar’s decline.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-and-treasury-ensure-dollar-downside-ahead

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were down 5.6% while purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew at a slower pace than in the previous week.

 

The December Case Shiller home price index fell 0.3% versus consensus of -0.1%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-upward-trend-decelerates-december-2023

 

 

The second estimate of Q4 GDP growth was 3.2% versus predictions of 3.3%; the second estimate Q4 PCE was 1.8% versus 1.7%; the second estimate of real consumer spending was 3.0% versus 2.8%.

 

The February Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -5 versus projections of +3.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-flat-february-2024

 

The February consumer confidence index was 106.7 versus estimates of 115.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/27/consumer-confidence-retreats-in-february

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 110.2 versus expectations of 110.0.

 

The February EU economic sentiment index was 95.4 versus forecast of 96.7; the industrial sentiment index was -9.5, in line; the services sentiment index was 6 versus 9; the consumer confidence index was -15.5, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Recession

 

              Real wage growth thru January 2024.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/real-wage-growth-thru-january-2024

 

              Will the US economy drive global growth this year?

  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-economy-soft-landing-likely-but-not-certain-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2024-02?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote

 

                        Government Shutdown

 

              House conservatives’ demands stall efforts to avoid March 1^st shutdown.

              https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4490368-house-conservative-demands-shutdown/

 

              But April 1^st may be more critical.

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lawmakers-hope-to-avoid-a-march-1-shutdown-an-april-30-deadline-may-be-more-critical-090012917.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2FwaXRhbHNwZWN0YXRvci5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC1V8-m267svNrXbZ6ee2E6mQkGyrA4Q7dojYgQqnrqHO9YDLkSWNf-ah_BeStyoYy33b2EFYs6k_makDGOBihGtkISncoGbfaW7bMKDTOgbu1ocoWa-qnxp4sxIwERT1BYdrk6psN6yhaDfNunalirEL1l7JTt1qYhqj7QmkA4v

 

 

    Bottom line

 

            A bull market may just be getting started.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-bull-market-might-just-be-getting-started

 

            When to take profits?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/25/weekly-market-pulse-artificial-intelligence/?src=news

 

            Companies looking to equity to finance growth as interest rates rise.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-27/reddit-campari-aston-martin-turn-to-equity-markets-for-much-needed-cash?srnd=phoenix-americas&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

           

 

 

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