The Morning Call---S&P breaks very short term uptrend

 

The Morning Call

 

2/21/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-stocks-skid-ahead-nvdas-big-da

 

Note: the S&P challenged the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend yesterday. If it remains there through the close today, it will negate that trend. If so, then we need to look for the next support levels; which are as follows: the 50 DMA (~4826), the 100 DMA (~4598), the 200 DMA (~4489), the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (~4321), the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend (~4261). Be careful.

 

            Equal weighted indices back to 2021 highs, but………

            https://allstarcharts.com/equally-weighted-indexes-back-to-2021-highs/

 

            Margin debt up in January.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/20/margin-debt-up-0-2-in-january

 

            Don’t fear all-time highs; understand them.

            Don't Fear All-Time Highs, Understand Them - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Everyone is in the pool.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everyones-pool-goldmans-flows-guru-sees-positioning-warning-signs-ahead-nvda-earnings

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 10.6% while purchase applications were down 10.0%.

 

The January leading economic indicators were down 0.4% versus estimates of -0.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/20/leading-economic-index-conference-board-no-longer-forecasting-recession

 

                        International

 

The January Japanese trade balance was -Y1758.3 billion versus predictions of -Y1925.9 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Markets starting to speculate that next Fed move is up not down.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-20/markets-start-to-speculate-if-the-next-fed-move-is-up-not-down?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The Fed has a big problem.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/feds-big-problem-there-are-two-economies-only-one-interest-rate

 

            Recession

 

              Recession defined and predicted (?).

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/recessions-defined-and-maybe-predicted

 

              Credit cards starting to show strain.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/20/credit-cards-showing-strains-northerntrust

 

              Estimating recession risk using data from the states.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/estimating-us-recession-risk-using-economic-data-for-states/

 

    Bottom line

 

            The most crowded trade on earth.

            https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/crowded-trade-earth

 

            Low volatility and equity performance.

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/02/16/the-low-volatility-factor-and-occams-razor/?s_cid=eml_Enterprising

 

            Where does the trading edge come from?

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/02/where-does-trading-edge-come-from.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Expeditors press release (NYSE:EXPD): Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.09 misses by $0.13.

Revenue of $2.3B (-33.1% Y/Y) misses by $10M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            You don’t need more how-to advice.

            https://tim.blog/2024/02/09/harajuku-moment/

 

 

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