Wednesday, February 7, 2024

The Morning Call--Do we really need five or six rate cuts?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/7/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-blow-fears-spark-bid-bonds-bullion-bitcoin

 

            Is 5000 on the S&P in the cards?

            S&P Index Set To Hit 5000 As Bull Run Continues - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.7% while purchase applications were down 0.6%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain sore sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

                          Q4 household debt rose.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/ny-fed-q4-report-household-debt.html

 

                          The December trade balance was -$62.2 billion, in line.

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 110.0 versus forecasts of 109.4.

 

December German industrial production fell 1.6% versus predictions of -0.4%.

 

January Chinese YoY vehicle sales were up 47.9% versus expectations of up 19.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Why are companies sitting on so much cash?

                          https://hbr.org/2024/02/why-are-companies-sitting-on-cash-right-now

 

            The Fed

 

              Does Powell’s (Fed’s) comments mean anything?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/02/05/market-pulse-skeptically-optimistic/

 

              Do we really need five or six rate cuts?

              https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/stocks-only-need-a-few-fed-rate-cuts-to-soar/

 

            Recession

 

              It’s a moderate growth disinflationary world.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/its-moderate-growth-disinflationary.html

 

              Global economic growth at seven month high.

              https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/56c654c4b5ef4203a0cb93dd9417e436

 

            The Financial System

 

              Another potential threat to (Treasury) market liquidity.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sec-cracks-down-basis-trades-will-force-top-hedge-funds-register-dealers-resulting

 

            The coronavirus

 

              New study shows the covid vaccine caused more deaths than the lives it saved.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/mrna-covid-19-vaccines-caused-more-deaths-saved-study

 

    Bottom line

 

            January dividends by the numbers

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/dividends-by-numbers-in-january-2024.html

 

            Bonds are still too expensive.

            https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/bonds-are-still-too-expensive

 

            Cash reserves or not?

            https://www.ft.com/content/9ed35dcf-7cac-41bd-a16e-6a58b8fb8638

 

            Mutual fund managers are wrong more than they are right.

            https://www.morningstar.com/funds/mutual-fund-managers-are-wrong-more-than-theyre-right

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

3M (NYSE:MMM) declares $1.51/share quarterly dividend0.7% increase from prior dividend of $1.50.

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.66/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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