The Morning Call--Unprecedented divergences

 

The Morning Call

 

2/9/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring-big-tech-skids-bitcoin-black-gold-bid

 

            SPY and IWM’s unprecedented divergence.

            https://www.etf.com/sections/news/spy-and-iwms-unprecedented-divergence-explained

 

            More on internal Market irregularities.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/equity-market-focu-theme-sparks-extreme-sentiment-signal

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 218,000 versus estimates of 220,000.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/08/unemployment-claims-down-9k-lower-than-expected

 

                        International

 

                          The January German CPI was +0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              All gas, no brakes.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/biden-admin-all-gas-no-brakes-economic-reflation-nomura-warns-running-it-hot-election

 

            Inflation

 

              Chinese deflation alarms.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/08/business/china-deflation.html

 

              The risk of deflation in the US.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/will-we-follow-china-and-suffer-deflation-which-is-very-much-worse-than-inflation.html

 

            Recession

 

              Update on Q1 nowcast.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/02/forecasts-and-nowcasts

 

              Interest rates are still the biggest short term risk.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/interest-rates-are-still-biggest-short-term-risk-nobel-economist/

 

              Mortgage delinquencies increased in Q4.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/02/mba-mortgage-delinquencies-increase-in.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              Real estate crisis looming over banks.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/07/business/dealbook/banks-commercial-real-estate.html

 

            The Bond Market

 

              The real inversion.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/real-inversion

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Tucker Carlson’s (two hour) interview with Putin.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tucker-carlson-putin-interview

 

     Bottom line

 

            Does ESG investing improve performance results?

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/does-esg-investing-deliver-better.html

 

            Markets have been broken by passive quant investing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/david-einhorn-says-markets-fundamentally-broken-by-passive-quant-investing?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Nike (NYSE:NKE) declares $0.37/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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