Thursday, February 15, 2024

The Morning Call---Huge data dump this morning

 

The Morning Call

 

2/15/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-fall-bank-love-stocks-bonds-after-terrible-tuesday-bitcoin-breaks-above-50k

 

Note: stocks rebounded yesterday. The S&P bounced off the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and regained the magic 5000 level. Further, it remained in a rising wedge pattern formed by the lower boundary of that very short term uptrend and the upper boundary of its short term uptrend. Historically, those type formations are usually resolved to the upside.

 

            VIX seasonality.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/vix-seasonality-2

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 212,000 versus predictions of 220,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/despite-ongoing-mass-corporate-layoffs-govt-supplied-jobless-claims-data-continues-decline

 

December PPI came in at -0.2% versus consensus of -0.1%; core PPI was -0.1% versus 0.0%.

 

January retail sales were down 0.8% versus expectations of -0.1%; ex autos, they were -0.6% versus +0.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-plunged-january-worst-yoy-growth-covid-lockdown

 

The February NY Fed manufacturing index was -2.4 versus estimates of -15.0; the February Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was +5.2 versus -0.8.

 

                        International

 

Q4 preliminary Japanese GDP growth was -0.1% versus projections of +0.3%; Q4 preliminary capital expenditures were -0.1% versus +0.3%; Q4 preliminary private consumption was -0.2% versus +0.1%; December industrial production was +1.4% versus +1.8%; December capacity utilization was -0.1% versus +0.4%.

 

Q4 preliminary UK GDP growth was -0.3% versus forecasts of -0.1%; Q4 preliminary business investment was +1.5% versus -0.1%; December industrial production was +0.6% versus -0.1%; the December trade balance was -L2.6 billion versus -L1.9 billion; December YoY construction orders were down 30.2% versus +5.0%.

 

The December EU trade balance was +E16.8 billion versus predictions of +E21.5 billion.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you are talking real money.

              https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/senators-smuggle-migration-funds-into.html

 

            Inflation

 

              A look at the ‘owners’ equivalent rent’ calculation in CPI.

              https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/02/why-todays-inflation-driven-flush-comes-at-the-perfect-time/

 

              More.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-cpi-overshoot-is-statistical.html

 

              The cost of car ownership is getting painful.

              https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/inflation-car-prices-ownership-insurance-7cac91f1?st=1vl1nwl7qar8heo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Recession

 

              Total US trade with the rest of the world shrank in 2023.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/02/total-us-trade-with-world-shrank-in-2023.html

 

              The brutal reality of plunging office values.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/real-estate-lenders-confront-falling-us-commercial-property-prices?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Economists sounding alarm over consumer credit bubble.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/economists-are-sounding-alarm-yolo-credit-bubble

 

 

    Bottom line

 

            Prepare for a correction.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/prepare-for-a-stock-market-correction1/rcm

 

            How often do bear markets occur?

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/02/how-often-do-bear-markets-occur/

 

            The most costly investment mistake that you can easily avoid.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-14/the-most-costly-investment-mistake-you-can-make-is-easy-to-avoid?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cisco press release (NASDAQ:CSCO): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.87 beats by $0.03.

Revenue of $12.8B (-5.9% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

 

Genuine Parts press release (NYSE:GPC): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $5.6B (+1.1% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

 

Genuine Parts (NYSE:GPC) declares $1.00/share quarterly dividend5.3% increase from prior dividend of $0.95.

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.715/share quarterly dividend18.2% increase from prior dividend of $0.605.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Thursday morning humor.

            10 Financial Tips From Leading Politicians For Amassing Amazing Wealth | Babylon Bee

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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