The Morning Call---the Fed changes its narrative---again

The Morning Call

 

2/1/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bullion-puke-after-powell-pummels-dovish-dreamers-assails-ai

               

            More volatility?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/losing-it-0

 

            The Animal Spirits Index.

            https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/01/sentiment-confidence-news-january-2024

 

            Euphoria meets reality.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/euphoria-meets-reality

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

                   

                        US

                         

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 224,000 versus estimates of 212,000.

 

Q1 preliminary nonfarm productivity rose 3.2% versus expectations of +2.5%; unit labor costs were up 0.5% versus +1.6%.

 

                        International

                       

The December EU unemployment rate was 6.4%, in line; the January CPI was -0.4% versus -0.3%.

 

The January Japanese manufacturing PMI was 48.0, in line; the January Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8 versus 50.6; the January German manufacturing PMI was 45.5 versus 45.4; the January EU manufacturing PMI was 46.6, in line; the January UK manufacturing PMI was 47.0 versus 46.9.

 

                        Other

        

         The Fed

 

The FOMC wound up its January meeting. The subsequent statement was more hawkish than generally expected. Plus, in Powell’s presser that followed, he stated that there likely would not be a rate cut in March---much to the chagrin of the Market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-13

 

The Bank of England follows suit.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cable-rallies-after-hawkish-pivot-bank-england

 

Powell has to play politics to keep his job.

           https://www.heritage.org/monetary-policy/commentary/the-feds-powell-will-have-play-politics-keep-his-job

               

                Dueling ‘shorts.’

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/doublelines-gundlach-doubles-down-recession-other-big-short-now-blissfully-long

 

        The Financial System

 

           Are the dominoes starting to fall?

           https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dominos-after-nycb-japan-bank-implodes-massive-us-cre-writedown

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide press release (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 misses by $0.31.

Revenue of $4.22B (-16.7% Y/Y) misses by $100M.

 

Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.18 in-line.

Revenue of $5.02B (-1.2% Y/Y) misses by $60M.

 

 

What I am reading today

           

                        Teaching gratitude to your kids.

            https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/teaching-gratitude-to-your-kids/

 

            The mysterious life of Buddha.

            The Buddha's birthplace grants insights about his life and times (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            In praise of non-conformity.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/01/in-praise-of-non-conformity.html

 

            Climate change and faulty temperature readings.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trillions-spent-climate-change-based-faulty-temperature-data-climate-experts-say

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.