The Morning Call---Beware of Friday's option expiration

 

The Morning Call

 

2/13/24

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/0dte-punters-pump-and-dump-momentum-stocks-parabolic-tech-hits-airpocket

 

            Beware of the results of this Friday’s option expiration.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-unclenching-looms-90-dealar-gamma-expire-friday

 

            From Goldman’s funds flow guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-seeing-momo-fomo-retail-call-buyers-short-covering-dash-trash

 

            Past performances suggest that stocks have further to go.

            https://www.ft.com/content/6810f509-feaf-4f4f-ab96-5784b94fa8f8

 

            Higher for longer.

            https://allstarcharts.com/rates-higher-for-longer-it-is/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Th January budget deficit was $22.0 billion versus forecasts of $21.0 billion.

 

The January small business optimism index was 89.9 versus predictions of 91.1.

 

January CPI was +0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%; core CPI was +0.4% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cpi-prints-hotter-expected-january-food-utilities-jumped

 

                        International

 

The December UK unemployment rate was 3.8% versus estimates of 4.0%; December average earnings (3 month YoY) grew 5.8% versus +5.6%.

 

January Japanese PPI was 0.0% versus expectations of +0.1%.

 

The February EU economic sentiment index was 25.0 versus projections of 20.1; the February German economic sentiment index was 19.9 versus 17.5; the February German current conditions index was -81.7 versus -79.0.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The hunt for the elusive ‘neutral rate.’

              https://www.ft.com/content/e0f27da0-b735-4b73-b5a9-06dbc186842f

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Criminal neglect.

              https://nalert.blogspot.com/2024/02/rand-paul-its-criminal-neglect-for.html

 

            Recession

 

Business economists less worried about recession, more worried about ‘higher for longer’ and deficit spending.

              https://apnews.com/article/us-economy-interest-rates-federal-reserve-recession-3dc2a271c285ec78d7b889afa1e1f5eb

 

                The latest NY Fed (goldilocks) consumer survey.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/3-year-inflation-expectations-tumble-lowest-record-earnings-expectations-suddenly-surge

 

     Bottom line

 

            The power of compounding.

            https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/02/s-500-5000.html

 

            Common valuation methods.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-prices-valuations-financial-advisers-35ced497?mod=hp_lead_pos3

           

Investors already bracing for US elections.

            https://www.ft.com/content/4bbfbde3-dd82-4e8f-a065-380f9a2ae1e1

 

            We have seen this all before.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-hit-all-time-high-new-era-productivity-and-profitability-except-weve-all-seen

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Sleeping our way to increased productivity.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/sleeping-our-way-to-being-productive.html

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4541.html

 

            Is Taylor Swift increasing NFL ratings?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/10/upshot/taylor-swift-nfl-ratings.html

           

            A vignette from Lincoln’s life.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/02/a-genius-for-friendship-10.php

 

            Herodotus on the Scythians.

            Ancient Scythians made human leather, research confirms (nationalgeographic.com)

 

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