The Morning Call--What happens if we get some actual bad news?

 

The Morning Call

 

2/27/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-rips-mag7-dips-super-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring

 

Note: yesterday, the S&P confirmed its successful challenge of the upper boundary of its short term uptrend---but just barely so, closing fractionally above that trend line. For the moment, I am going to assume that the challenge has been successful. But a close today below that boundary would reverse the call. Follow through.

 

            Hedge funds dumping tech stocks, retail buying.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-dumping-tech-stocks-retail-buying

 

            Goldman positions for momentum reversal.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momo-fomo-or-nomo-goldman-trader-shows-how-position-momentum-reversal

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

January new home sales were up 1.5% versus expectations of +0.9%; building permits were down 0.3% versus -1.5%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/26/new-home-sales-inch-up-january-2024

 

January durable goods orders fell 6.1% versus forecasts of down 4.5%; ex transportation, they were down 0.3% versus +0.2%.

 

The February Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at -11.3 versus predictions of -8.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/02/26/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-february

 

                        International

 

                          January Japanese CPI came in at 0.0% versus estimates of -0.1%.

 

                          The March German consumer confidence index was -29, in line.

 

            The Fed

 

              The Treasuries market is losing its shock absorber.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/treasury-markets-are-losing-their-shock-absorber-75ed6ea1?mod=economy_lead_story

 

              Soaring stock prices may slow interest rate cuts.

              https://www.thestreet.com/investing/a-soaring-stock-market-may-delay-delay-rate-cuts

 

              So should the data flow.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/looking-ahead-to-us-economic-data-for-february/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Spiraling public debt risks action by the bond vigilantes.

              https://www.ft.com/content/370e94f6-b6b3-4e8b-99e4-3a94c77276ee

 

            Recession

 

              Cracks in consumption have started to appear.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/02/26/cracks-consumption-have-started-appear

 

            Geopolitics

 

              NATO freaking out over crumbling Ukraine military.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/nato-freakout-over-crumbling-ukraine-military-poland-threatens-us-with-nuclear-development-if-no-aid-package.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            A boom in reverse stock splits.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/23/this-stuff-is-just-funny-we-have-a-boom-in-mega-reverse-stock-splits-to-keep-the-ballooning-number-of-imploded-stocks-listed-a-while-longer/

                       

            What happens if we get some actual bad news?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-rally-driven-less-hopeful-start-year

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia press release (NYSE:BNS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.69.

Revenue of C$8.43B (+5.9% Y/Y).

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE:BNS) declares C$1.06/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        How to overcome performance pressure.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/02/how-to-overcome-performance-pressure.html

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/02/quotation-of-the-day-4557.html

 

 

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