The Morning Call--The Treasury put

The Morning Call

 

7/20/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/another-day-another-short-squeeze-stocks-yield-curve-yells-recession

 

            The last time there was a top.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/last-time-it-was-top

                 

            Inverted fear.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/inverted-fear

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 228,000 versus projections of 242,000.

 

  The July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -13.5 versus expectations of -10.0.

                           https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/philly-fed-manufacturing-survey-signals-10th-straight-month-contraction

 

                        International

                      

 The June Japanese trade balance was Y43.0 billion versus    consensus of         Y-46.7 billion.

 

  June German PPI was -0.3% versus estimates of -0.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/19/the-big-four-economic-indicators-real-retail-sales-practically-unchanged-in-june

 

                          The latest Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast.

                          https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

            The Fed

 

              My favorite optimist believes that the Fed is done.

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/07/i-repeat-fed-is-done.html

 

How many times in the last five years have I lamented that artificially low interest rates led to the mispricing of risk and the misallocation of assets?     

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-18/billions-in-corporate-debt-wave-of-bankruptcies-threatens-global-economy?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                        Fiscal Policy

 

                The Treasury put (must read).

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-put-will-turn-investing-its-head

 

                                                                        

            Inflation

 

              The doomsday inflation scenario.

              https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/jul/17/long-run-debasement-of-us-dollar-likely-to-get-muc/

 

Recession

 

  Good luck getting a loan.

  https://www.ft.com/content/c5b78f0b-bcd9-43ed-8975-e0d24ab9635b

 

              Second Baltimore office tower sold at deep discount.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/baltimore-hit-office-tower-price-crash-firesale-erupts

 

              I think that this author is rationalizing his way out of a recession forecast.

              https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/07/18/what-does-an-inverted-yield-curve-tell-us/

 

              Latest WSJ GDP growth survey.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/growth-prospects-july-wsj-survey

 

              As if there wasn’t enough to worry about.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/07/19/el-nino-bring-storms-to-the-markets-kleintop

               

              China’s producer price deflation could hurt small manufacturers around the world.                                                    https://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-producer-deflation-could-crush-smaller-manufacturers-around-world-3705558

               

             Consumer credit scores abruptly plunge.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/synchrony-financial-warns-credit-scores-abruptly-plunge-690-620

 

    Bottom line

 

            Big tech stocks are about to be tested.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-07-19/apple-microsoft-amazon-nvidia-tesla-stocks-to-be-tested?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Investors feeling bold again.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tech-stocks-meme-stocks-crypto-investors-are-feeling-bold-again-f158812b?st=j78bddzehyo9jd4&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

            Early signs that earnings could turn the corner.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/green-shoots-again-early-signs-earnings-could-soon-turn-corner

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Johnson & Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.80 beats by $0.18.

Revenue of $25.53B (+6.4% Y/Y) beats by $860M.

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.00/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.605/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/07/bonus-quotation-of-the-day-962.html

 

 

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