The Morning Call--Can the Market keep rising without some sort of short term correction

 

The Morning Call

 

7/26/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bounces-banks-bust-bonds-breakdown-rate-hike-odds-rise-ahead-fed

 

            Investors are still scared.

            https://allstarcharts.com/investors-are-still-so-scared/

 

            Trading indicator with flawless track record signals start of new bull market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trading-indicator-flawless-track-record-signals-start-new-bull-market

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.8% while purchase applications were down 2.5%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales declined more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

The May Case Shiller home price index rose 1.5% versus consensus of +1.3%.

 

July consumer confidence was reported at 117.0 versus predictions of 111.8.

 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/25/consumer-confidence-index-conference-board-improves-two-year-high

 

The July Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -9 versus estimates of -2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/25/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-remained-sluggish-july

 

                        International

                    

The May Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 109.2               versus projections of 109.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              Housing and how it impacts inflation.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/07/24/housing-hiccups-mauldin

 

            Recession

 

This indicator places the odds of a recession within the next twelve months at over 80%.

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/07/probability-of-recession-starting-in.html

             

   A ‘soft’ landing depends on the Fed’s tolerance for inflation.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-23/us-economic-soft-landing-hinges-on-fed-s-tolerance-of-inflation?srnd=premium&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=267482585&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8LIepN1XGdz6RrpsRSvkaqEyCuiGZq9ut7Esh9-osZJEP53nqJFBWUxOd8FDdkAEJ5FQGn28iOp6VyKLK3aVTz6Bt4BQ&utm_content=267482585&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ

                 

             Lower savings rate is raising the risk of recession.

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-5-trillion-savings-wipeout-204546794.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2FwaXRhbHNwZWN0YXRvci5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAC1V8-m267svNrXbZ6ee2E6mQkGyrA4Q7dojYgQqnrqHO9YDLkSWNf-ah_BeStyoYy33b2EFYs6k_makDGOBihGtkISncoGbfaW7bMKDTOgbu1ocoWa-qnxp4sxIwERT1BYdrk6psN6yhaDfNunalirEL1l7JTt1qYhqj7QmkA4v

 

     Bottom line

 

            Can the Market keep rising without some sort of short-term correction?

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-cycle-set-to-improve-but-are-bulls-too-bullish/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BullBear%20Report%20Profit%20Growth%20And%20Stock%20Returns%20%20The%20End%20Of%20An%20Era&utm_content=BullBear%20Report%20Profit%20Growth%20And%20Stock%20Returns%20%20The%20End%20Of%20An%20Era+CID_ddacdd76dac543272c8b16d5bc0c75e8&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=SEE%20THE%20ENTIRE%20REPORT%20HERE

 

            How companies beat earnings estimates.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/beating-estimates-how-companies-win-in-earnings-season?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tuesday%20Takes%20July%2025&utm_content=Tuesday%20Takes%20July%2025+CID_166d141357c1c528cb9c6050dd103cd0&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE

 

            Some investors are returning to high dividend stocks.

            https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/sensing-end-fed-hikes-some-investors-return-dividend-stocks-2023-07-25/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Canadian National Railway press release (NYSE:CNI): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.76.

Revenue of C$4.06B (-6.5% Y/Y).

 

Microsoft press release (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q4 GAAP EPS of $2.69 beats by $0.14.

Revenue of $56.2B (+8.3% Y/Y) beats by $710M

 

Automatic Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.89 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $4.5B (+8.0% Y/Y) beats by $110M.

 

General Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q2 GAAP EPS of $2.70 beats by $0.10.

Revenue of $10.2B (+10.5% Y/Y) beats by $730M.

 

McDonald's Corporation (MCD) declares $1.52/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The college admissions game.  Guess who wins?

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/07/the-admissions-game.html

 

 

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