The Morning Call---Update on second quarter earnings season

The Morning Call

 

7/25/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-bid-bonds-bitcoin-battered-stagflation-scare-soars

 

            The VIX is so low, it has to go up.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/07/24/volatility-index-equity-stock-lance-roberts

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                          

The June Chicago Fed national activity index was reported at -.32 versus consensus of +0.03.

 

The July flash manufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus expectations of 46.2; the flash services PMI was 52.4 versus 54.0; the flash composite PMI was 52.0 versus 52.6.

 

                        International

                          

The July German business climate index came in at 87.3 versus projections of 88.0; the July current conditions index was 91.3 versus 93.0.

 

The July UK industrial trends orders index was -9.0 versus forecasts of -12.0; the Q3 business optimism index was 6.0 versus 5.0.

                       

Other

 

                          Update on four high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/07/update-on-four-high-frequency-indicators.html

 

                          When will the tight labor market revert to trend?

                          https://angrybearblog.com/2023/07/how-long-until-the-historically-tight-jobs-market-reverts-to-trend

 

Inflation

 

  A rebound in housing poses a problem to Fed in its inflation fight.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/housing-market-rebound-poses-challenge-for-fed-s-inflation-fight?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Recession

 

              America’s prolonged economic stagnation.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/americas-prolonged-economic-stagflation/

 

              The noose tightens on consumer credit.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/noose-tightens-consumer-credit-auto-loan-rejections-hit-record-high

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US sending more ships and troops to Middle East.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sending-more-warships-marines-to-middle-east-amid-rising-tensions-with-iran-dfc3a048

 

            The coronavirus

 

               America’s public health establishment has become a threat to individual liberties.

               https://www.city-journal.org/article/censorship-and-the-public-health-establishment

 

     Bottom line

 

         Update on second quarter earnings season.

         https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-july-21-2023

 

         Hedge funds liquidating industrial stocks.

         https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-liquidate-industrial-stocks-furious-pace-steamrolling-soft-landing-thesis

 

         The US junk bond market hit with a flurry of ratings downgrades.

         https://www.ft.com/content/53070419-cbfb-4f83-91b3-07f7460b5417

 

         Markets are betting on a Goldilocks scenario.

         https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/21/business/fed-inflation-recession.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams press release (NYSE:SHW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.29 beats by $0.60.

Revenue of $6.24B (+6.3% Y/Y) beat by $210M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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