Friday, July 14, 2023

The Morning Call---Federal debt interest payments about to hit $1 trillion

The Morning Call

 

7/14/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/broke-buck-mounting-after-soft-ppi-bonds-crypto-gold-gain

 

Short selling just hit $1 trillion.

https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2bwuy8kxkg20yovwizgg0/portfolio/short-selling-just-hit-1-trillion

 

This model says 10-year Treasury yields are too high.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-13-july-2023/

 

Continue to watch the dollar.

https://allstarcharts.com/its-that-catalyst-again/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 237,000 versus expectations of 250,000.

 

June PPI came in at +0.1% versus predictions of +0.2%; June core PPI was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.                      

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/13/ppi-producer-price-index-june-cools-lowest-august-2020

 

                        International

 

The May EU trade balance was E-0.3 billion versus consensus of E-7.6 billion.

 

June Japanese industrial production fell 2.2% versus estimates of -1.6%.

 

June German PPI was -0.2% versus forecasts of -1.2%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s job isn’t done.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-we-could-be-heading-toward-generational-bear-market-bonds

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Federal debt interest payments are about to hit $1 trillion.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/endgame-us-debt-interest-payments-about-hit-1-trillion

 

            Inflation

 

              Barry Ritholtz on inflation.

              https://ritholtz.com/2023/07/contrarian-inflation/

 

            Recession

 

              Shrinking US trade with the world.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/07/shrinking-us-trade-with-world-with-and.html

 

  China exports fall the most in three years.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-june-exports-fall-124-imports-drop-68-2023-07-13/

 

  The impact of student loan repayments.

  https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/07/13/student-loan-repayments-recession-lance-roberts

 

  EU small business distress index hits mid 2020 high.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/small-business-distress-index-hits-mid-2020-high-2023-07-13/

 

     Bottom line

 

            When costs gobble up all the alpha.

            https://www.ft.com/content/ed30659e-678b-401e-a387-9f37184ba4fe

 

            The US junk bond market is shrinking.

            https://www.ft.com/content/19e2f31d-b7a6-4fcd-808b-9fe2d71453f5

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declares $0.89/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $9.28 beats by $0.86.

Revenue of $4.46B (-1% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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