The Morning Call
7/27/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dow-matches-record-winning-streak-powell-keeps-party-going
Here is another indicator
that suggests a new bull market has just started.
Most confident
consumers in two years.
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/most-confident-consumers-in-two-years/
The dollar is
recovering; but is it just a countertrend rally?
https://allstarcharts.com/ol-king-dollar-bounces-back/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 221,000 versus consensus of
235,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-continuing-jobless-claims-plunge-lowest-5-months
Preliminary
Q2 real GDP growth was 2.45 versus predictions of 1.8%; preliminary Q2 real
consumer spending was up 1.6% versus +4.1%; Preliminary Q2 PCE prices were up
3.8% versus 4.0%.
June
new home sales were down 2.5% versus forecasts of -4.0%; June building permits
were down 3.7%, in line.
June durable goods orders were up 4.7% versus
expectations of +1.0%; ex transportation, they were up 0.6% versus 0.0%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/durable-goods-orders-june-saw-biggest-monthly-spike-3-years
International
June Chinese YoY industrial profits fell 16.8%
versus estimates of -15.0%.
The August German
consumer confidence index came in at -24.4 versus projections of -24.7.
Other
The
Fed
The FOMC wrapped
up its July meeting, raising rates another 25 bp (as expected) and leaving its
policy statement virtually unchanged (as expected if you believe that rates
hikes are in the rear-view mirror).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-hikes-rates-25bps-expected-stays-data-dependent
And the tone of
Powell’s subsequent presser didn’t change much either---though investors are
interpreting his comments as dovish.
M2 update from my
favorite optimist. Here he maintains that optimism (i.e.; the Fed will continue
to shrink M2 and no recession), wrongly I believe.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/07/m2-update-inflation-still-headed-to-zero.html
ECB hikes key interest rates 25 bp.
Inflation
This author thinks
targeting inflation at 2% is silly, implying that 4% may be OK. I agree 2% may
be arbitrary but why wouldn’t the logical number be 0%.
https://ritholtz.com/2023/07/2-inflation-target-dumb/
The tomato soup indicator.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/07/inflation-slows-for-campbells-tomato.html
Recession
A closer look at the commercial real estate
market.
IMF raises 2023 global growth forecast.
Bottom line
Bond valuations
suggest equity-like returns but with less risk.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
AbbVie press release (NYSE:ABBV): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.91 beats by $0.10.
These
Results Include an Unfavorable Impact of $0.15 Per Share Related to Acquired
IPR&D and Milestones Expense
Revenue
of $13.87B (-4.9% Y/Y) beats by $350M.
McDonald's
press release (NYSE:MCD): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.17 beats by $0.38.
Revenue
of $6.5B (+13.6% Y/Y) beats by $210M.
Mastercard
press release (NYSE:MA): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.89 beats by $0.06.
Revenue
of $6.3B (+14% Y/Y) beats by $130M.
What
I am reading today
Quote of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/07/quotation-of-the-day-4338.html
Bipartisan
bill to shake up college sports.
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