The Morning Call---The end of easy money

The Morning Call

 

7/12/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/massive-short-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring-gold-usd-dn-ahead-cpi

 

            Hedge funds slash exposure to US stocks.

            https://www.ft.com/content/598cf154-86e6-408f-ad7d-c3a373d58141

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                         

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.9% while purchase applications were up 1.8%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more slowly than in the prior week.

 

June CPI was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%; core CPI was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

 

                        International

 

May Japanese machinery orders fell 7.6% versus estimates of +1.0%; June PPI was -0.2% versus +0.1%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The end of easy money.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/07/wolf-richter-end-of-easy-money-financial-conditions-loosen-again-for-junk-rated-companies-but-some-that-long-   teetered-finally-go-over-the-bankruptcy-cliff.html

                       

                

             Inflation

 

                 Prices of online goods tumble.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-cracks-prices-online-goods-tumble-sharpest-rate-early-pandemic

 

 

            Recession

           

              Where is that recession?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/07/10/weekly-market-pulse-recession-2025/

                  

              US recession risk is still low.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-is-still-low-defying-recent-forecasts/

 

              Relative affordability of new homes worsened slightly in May.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/07/relative-affordability-of-new-homes.html

    

              The leading index for commercial real estate declined in June.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/07/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html

 

            The Banking System

 

              America’s largest banks are going to need more capital.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-barr-says-nations-biggest-banks-need-more-capital-abf3bee8?mod=economy_lead_story

 

     Bottom line

 

            More wisdom from Howard Marks.

            Taking the Temperature - Oaktree Capital Management - Commentaries - Advisor Perspectives

 

            Should you include emerging market stocks/ETFs in your portfolio?

            https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/should-emerging-markets-play-role-your-portfolio

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/dc-police-say-they-will-probably-never-discover-who-left-bag-of-cocaine-labeled-property-of-h-biden-at-white-house

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.