The Morning Call---Soft landing; maybe not

 

The Morning Call

 

7/18/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                    

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-shrug-china-chunder-seth-klarman-warns-id-be-worried

 

            Dollar bears calling an end to an era.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-16/dollar-s-busted-bull-run-has-doomsayers-calling-end-of-an-era?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                               

                          Month to date retail chain store sales declined less than in the prior week.

 

June retail sales were up 0.2% versus expectations of up 0.5%; ex autos, they were up 0.2% versus up 0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-disappoint-june

 

June industrial production fell 0.5% versus estimates of being flat; capacity utilization was 78.9% versus 79.5%.

                        

                           Note: the above two datapoints do not suggest a soft landing.

 

The July New York Fed manufacturing index came in at +1.2 versus consensus of -4.3.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/commentaries/2023/07/17/manufacturing-empire-state-survey-activity-holds-steady

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Is a Minsky moment coming?

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/minsky-moment-powder-keg

 

            The Fed

 

              How Fed misguidance leads to bank failures.

              https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/how-federal-reserve-misguidance-contributes-to-bank-failures

 

 

                          Jim Grant: I can’t believe that the Fed will stick a soft landing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-rivets-are-popping-economy

 

                        Inflation

 

              The flip side of the inflation coin (must read).

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/07/16/flip-side-inflation-coin-mauldin

 

 

                        Recession

 

              China’s upside surprise.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/china-upside-surprise

                                    

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/17/business/china-economy.html

 

                            The global economy is starting to sag.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-buoyant-global-economy-is-starting-to-sag-b027f7f8?mod=economy_lead_pos5&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=266601951&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--pNdPxujXgCoko0EVyyVfjGGHhYz49gFl1PnYa1CIj6s8M0p-MmBlQbFvT9pJHtMqWSuN6E1pXRBYceW9yjOPC1HgmsQ&utm_content=266601951&utm_source=hs_email

 

                        The Banking System

 

              The commercial real estate problem is only going to get worse.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/07/17/commercial_real_estate_troubles_call_for_1980s_s_and_l_style_solution_966257.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            The bull market may not be over, but it is close.       

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/07/17/market-cycles-bull-isnt-dead-lance-roberts

 

How to know when we are really in new bull market.

https://www.morningstar.com/markets/how-know-when-were-really-new-bull-market

 

A look at this earnings season.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-and-the-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-earnings-season-fe6f1d5b?mod=hp_lead_pos3&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=266601951&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8IT2xeCpkYSMH_x2RWQ11ogdfnccrK0FYzId3oKjWYQIlZDQud04V4u3357sVQ2QD083ZHfIY1AHBU78eXxnHHdgY_rA&utm_content=266601951&utm_source=hs_email

 

And earnings in the second half of 2023.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-15/corporate-america-s-profit-engine-is-just-starting-to-rev-up?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                        Can you say ‘multiple expansion’?

            https://www.axios.com/2023/07/17/us-stocks-earnings-growth-2023

 

            How to get rich in the Market.

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/07/how-to-get-rich-in-the-markets/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

Adam Smith’s legacy.

https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/adam-smiths-legacy

           

Tuesday morning humor.

https://babylonbee.com/news/new-mission-impossible-features-tom-cruise-attempting-to-get-bag-of-chips-off-high-shelf

 

 

 

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