The Morning Call---Inflation is likely to re-ignite

 

The Morning Call

 

7/28/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                 

                  Thursday in the charts.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-panics-after-planted-story-boj-ycc-tweak-sends-stocks-tumbling-yields-and-yen

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                               

                          June pending home sales were up 0.3% versus expectations of down 0.5%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/27/pending-home-sales-inch-up-in-june

                           

  June personal income was up 0.3% versus estimates of +0.5%. June personal spending was up 0.5% versus +0.4%.

 

                                   The June PCE price index was up 0.2%, in line.

 

  The July Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was -11 versus predictions of -5.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/27/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-activity-continued-decline-in-july

 

                        International

 

Q2 German flash GDP growth was 0.0% versus consensus of +0.1%; July CPI was 0.3%, in line.

 

July Japanese YoY CPI was 3.2% versus projections of +2.8%; July YoY core CPI was +3.0% versus +2.9%.

 

The July EU economic sentiment index was 94.5 versus forecasts of 95.0; the July industrial sentiment index was -9.4 versus -7.5; July consumer confidence was -15.1, in line.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  BOJ tweaks rates.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boj-tweaks-ycc-greater-flexibility-sending-bond-yields-soaring

 

Inflation

 

The latest apartment rent data shows slowing rent growth; this will start showing up in the CPI data.

  https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data

 

  Inflation is likely to re-ignite (must read).

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/defective-fed-policy-ensures-inflations-revival

 

Recession

 

  New CBO projections defer downturn.

  https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/cbo-projection-defers-the-downturn

 

Geopolitics

 

  How far will NATO go fighting a losing war in Ukraine?

   https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/07/the-balloon-goes-up-how-far-will-the-nato-allies-go-to-fight-their-losing-war-in-the-ukraine-how-much-more-will-   they-risk-losing-of-their-post-1945-territorial-gains.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            A textbook non recessionary bear market.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/07/a-textbook-non-recessionary-bear-market/

           

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

T. Rowe Price press release (NASDAQ:TROW): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.02 beats by $0.29.

Revenue of $1.61B (+6.6% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

 

Exxon Mobil press release (NYSE:XOM): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.94 misses by $0.08.

Revenue of $82.91B (-28.3% Y/Y) misses by $7.41B.

 

What I am reading today

                

            Friday morning humor.

            https://babylonbee.com/news/secret-service-says-crack-found-in-courtroom-chair-hunter-was-sitting-in-probably-left-by-tour-group

 

            Play deprivation is a major cause of teen mental health issues.

https://jonathanhaidt.substack.com/p/the-play-deficit?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1221094&post_id=135441845&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

 

 

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