The Morning Call---Fed paper warns of declining secular rate of profit grwoth

 

The Morning Call

 

7/13/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                 

                  Wednesday in the charts.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soft-cpi-sparks-bond-buying-bonanza-meme-stock-meltup-gold-gains-dollar-pukes

 

                  Trading the trend.

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/trading-trend

 

                  Is this the blow off top for equities?

                  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/blow-top-equities-following-cpi-goldman-flows-guru-answers-clients-most-asked-question

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

                     

                          May EU industrial production was up 0.2% versus forecasts of +0.3%.

 

  May UK GDP fell 0.1% versus projections of -0.3%; May industrial production was -0.6% versus -0.4%- the May trade balance was L-6.6 billion versus L-2.2 billion.

 

  The June Chinese trade balance was +$70.6 billion versus consensus of +$74.8 billion.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  Inflation eased in June but a July rate hike is likely still on the table.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/consumer-price-index-report-june-inflation-ede7f4b1?mod=hp_lead_pos2&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=266021059&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_xGZB5gyuDsDl2FsVkW-0YIxmOQc302IOjbuTv9lhP8ytHUUnquB9lzAdIHAHOdMqGzGK8OBD20tlKRc0nuGDkeUTaaw&utm_content=266021059&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

Inflation

 

  China teetering on deflation.

  https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/07/china-mid-2023-teetering-on-deflation

 

  The problem with the way inflation is calculated.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/measure-it-differently-and-inflation-is-behind-us-6a6a89c1?mod=economy_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=266021059&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--FBuOznCnfvydpHm2y_ltHeZxLQmzkTPsibLLhLchXh8PkdfgiKHx1S4ZAzC9IdHiaHXE5_7IABtTTH4SuVNi5oKOwuQ&utm_content=266021059&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

Recession

 

  The inverted yield curve and the next recession.

  https://www.aier.org/article/the-inverted-yield-curve-and-next-us-recession/

 

              There is no such thing as a ‘rolling recession’.

              https://www.themoneyillusion.com/theres-no-such-thing-as-rolling-recessions/

 

     Bottom line

 

            Hedging the valuation gap in today’s Market.                       

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/07/12/factor-bond-credit-inflation-gmo

 

            Fed paper warns of declining secular rate of profit growth (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/end-era-stocks-warns-fed

 

            The latest from Jim Grant (also a must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jim-grant-we-could-be-heading-toward-generational-bear-market-bonds

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

                 

Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.52 in-line.

Revenue of $1.88B (+5.9% Y/Y) misses by $10M.

 

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Can the school choice movement liberate childhood?

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/07/can-the-school-choice-movement-liberate-childhood.html

           

Money invades the Supreme Court.

            https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sotomayors-wealth-skyrocketed-since-joining-supreme-court-raising-ethics-concerns?intcmp=tw_pols

           

A blueprint for peak retirement.

https://tonyisola.com/2023/07/a-blueprint-for-peak-retirement/

 

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