The Morning Call---Risk-on signals point to higher Market

 

The Morning Call

 

7/19/23

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                  

                   Tuesday in the charts.

                   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-big-tech-burst-higher-bonds-bullion-bid-macro-skids

 

                   Rare technical indicators point to a continuing Market advance.

                   https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/07/rare-stock-indicators-show-the-market-is-about-to-skyrocket/

 

       Risk on signals point to higher market.

       https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-signals-strengthen-in-several-market-trend-profiles/

 

       Fear/greed index remains in extreme greed zone.

       https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/23/07/33260773/fear-greed-index-remains-in-extreme-greed-zone-after-dow-gains-for-sixth-consecutive-session

 

       Sentiment and positioning stretched.

       https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/sentiment-and-positioning-stretched-new-normal

 

       Is the bond bull market really over?

       https://allstarcharts.com/end-of-the-bond-bull-not-so-fast/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 1.1% while purchase applications were down 1.3%.

 

June housing starts fell 8.0% versus predictions of -10.2%; building permits were down 3.7% versus down 2.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-housing-starts-permits-plunged-june

 

                          The July housing index came in at 56, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/18/housing-market-index-nahb-builder-confidence-edges-higher-despite-concerns

 

                        International

 

May EU YoY construction output grew 0.1% versus estimates of -0.8%; June CPI was reported at +0.3%, in line.

 

June UK CPI was up 0.1% versus forecasts of +0.4%; core CPI was +0.2% versus +0.4%.          

                                

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/07/18/industrial-production-economic-indicator-drops-june

 

            Inflation

 

              The re-acceleration of inflation remains a risk.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/single-biggest-risk-facing-equity-rally

 

              The war against inflation is a long way from being won.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/17/the-war-against-inflation-is-a-long-way-away-from-being-won.html

 

              Used car prices continue to slide.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-car-prices-continue-slide-signs-normalcy-start-reemerge

 

              Why 3% inflation is unacceptable.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/why-us-citizens-should-not-accept-3-inflation

 

            Recession

 

              The false analogy of a ‘soft landing.’

              https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/07/12/the-immaculate-disinflation/

 

  Teen jobs trending downward in summer 2023.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/07/teen-jobs-trending-down-into-summer-of.html

 

  A Yellow (freight) bankruptcy could disrupt supply chains.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-yellow-bankruptcy-could-uproot-supply-chains-real-time

 

  Commercial real estate dominos fall.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cre-dominos-fall-starwood-defaults-2124-million-atlanta-office-tower

 

    Bottom line

 

Stocks lengthening duration.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-lengthening-duration-shows-markets-are-ignoring-history

 

            Making a buy list.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/07/17/weekly-market-pulse-wheres-that-correction/

 

US funds hit the limit on holdings of tech stocks.

https://www.ft.com/content/24960417-f525-461b-bcdc-2963999bcdcc

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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