The Morning Call---Maybe Powell should just stop talking

 

The Morning Call

 

12/2/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-defend-200dma-vix-tumbles-below-20-yields-plunge-sending-gold-soaring

 

            The Santa Claus rally in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cwsgq6rkuo

 

            Another indicator to keep an eye on.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c9dbosi22r

 

            Stocks face liquidation from squeezed middle.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-face-liquidation-threat-squeezed-middle

 

            What the yield curve is telling us.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-telling-us-next-fed-cutting-cycle-could-be-big

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          October construction spending fell 0.3%, in line.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/construction-spending-decreased-03-in.html

 

The November manufacturing PMI came in at 47.7 versus consensus of 47.6.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/12/01/october-s-p-global-us-manufacturing-pmitm-first-decline-since-june-2020

 

The November ISM manufacturing index was 49.0 versus estimates of 49.8.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/12/01/ism-manufacturing-index-contracts-in-november

 

                                                  November nonfarm payrolls grew 263,000 versus expectations of 200,000.

                                                   https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/november-payrolls-unexpectedly-smash-expectations-hourly-earnings-jump

 

                        International

 

The October German trade balance was E5.3 billion versus predictions of E9.1 billion.

 

October EU PPI declined 2.9% versus forecasts of -2.0%.

 

                        Other

                       

                         October median household income.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/12/median-household-income-in-october-2022.html#.Y4j45XbMKUk

 

Indicators show that the economy was recession in first half of 2022, but not now.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/11/2022q3-2nd-release-alternative-measures-of-activity-and-a-recession-of-2022h1

 

                          Rents are falling.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/rents-falling-faster-than-seasonality.html

 

The beginning of the end of the dollar based international trade system (must read)?

                                  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-global-south-births-new-game-changing-payments-system

 

                                  The plight of the retailer.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/political/marauding-bands-looters-are-stealing-billions-dollars-worth-merchandise-america-descends

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Biden’s awful (stupid) policy to pay poor nations reparations for ‘warming’.

              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGjMYEyqDFo&list=PLpndQ-APwbNXDxxBubkkkDQrTaJXt_ix0

 

     Bottom line

 

            Is the budding bull market real?

            https://investorplace.com/2022/11/is-the-budding-bull-market-real/

 

            Will everything be OK?

            https://www.ft.com/content/f13a5a28-116b-4208-9321-c8a6ee197118

 

            Investors need a new playbook.

            https://www.ft.com/content/725a23b8-eeab-4b96-a53e-2fede690d18d

 

            Investing in highly volatile stocks requires restraint (must read).

            https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/an-arkk-typical-problem

 

            Barry Ritholtz’ s thoughts on the current market.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/12/bottoming/

 

            The case for bonds.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/12/01/higher-bond-yields-can-be-fundamental-to-a-recession-investing-playbook

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        French streets again echo with the sound of horses’ hooves.

            https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/25/france-streets-working-horses-bin-collection-schools

 

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