The Morning Call--The failure of our ruling class

 

The Morning Call

 

12/9/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-crushed-jobs-data-signals-imminent-us-recession

 

            The latest from Goldman’s trading desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/and-now-squeeze-goldman-prime-finds-surge-hedge-fund-shorting-past-7-days

 

            Watch the NASDAQ.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/pulse-pillar-market

 

            Stop losses.

            https://allstarcharts.com/stop-loss-stupid/

 

            The dollar appears to have stopped going down.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/dollar-neutral-base-case

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 230,000, in line.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/12/08/weekly-unemployment-claims-up-4k-as-forecast

 

                        International

 

Q3 Japanese GDP declined 0.2% versus forecasts of -0.3%; private consumption was up 0.1% versus +0.3%; capital expenditures rose 1.5%, in line.

 

November Chinese CPI was -0.2%, in line; November YoY PPI was -1.3% versus -1.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          More optimism from Scott Grannis.

                          https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/12/about-that-yield-curve-inversion.html

 

                          Dethroning the dollar will be much harder than many suppose.

                          https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/12/dethroning-the-dollar-why-the-alternatives-are-not-ready-for-prime-time.html

 

                          Results of December macroeconomists survey.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/12/igm-ft-december-survey-of-macroeconomists-fed-policy-and-impending-recession

 

                          November rail carloads down slightly.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/aar-november-rail-carloads-down.html

 

            Inflation

 

              The inflation trend chartbook.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/introducing-the-us-inflation-trend-chartbook/#more-19269

 

              Don’t expect big declines in rents.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/ignore-pundits-dont-expect-big-declines-price-rent

 

            Recession

 

              A housing recession has already started.

              https://thehill.com/policy/finance/housing/3764226-economists-a-us-housing-recession-has-already-arrived/

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Another failure of the ruling class.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/12/08/the_future_of_prosperity_the_new_can-do_868933.html

 

I post a lot of articles critical of the Fed and the federal government---and that criticism is well deserved, in my opinion.  That said, I have long maintained that the measures taken following the 2008/2009 financial crisis strengthened our financial system, lowering the odds of another.  This article spells it out.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-08/us-federal-reserve-s-inflation-fight-spurs-crypto-tech-housing-market-drops?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Bottom line

 

            Emerging debt is sliding into distress.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-12-08/emerging-economies-have-a-high-default-risk-in-2023?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Altria (NYSE:MO) declares $0.94/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            On the need for CDC reform.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/12/from-the-comments-on-cdc-reform.html

 

            Only in America; land of the free absurd.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/transgender-activists-attack-feminists-protesting-men-womens-prisons

 

 

 

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