The Morning Call
12/6/22
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bullion-black-gold-battered-soft-landing-hopes-fade
Note: the S&P finished
back below its 200 DMA, failing to successfully complete the necessary
time/distance requirement for a trend reversal.
That leaves the DMA as resistance.
In addition, the index retreated enough to bring it close to the uptrend
off its 10/13 low.
Update on the
squeeze.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/alongway
For the optimists:
Sentiment is not good.
https://allstarcharts.com/people-are-angry-good/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail
chain store sales growth declined significantly from the prior week.
The October trade
balance was -$79.2 billion versus predictions of -$80 billion.
October factory orders
rose 1.0% versus projections of +0.7%; ex transportation, they were up 0.8%
versus up 0.1%.
The final November
services PMI came in at 46.2 versus forecasts of 46.1; the composite PMI was
46.4 versus 46.3.
The November ISM
nonmanufacturing index was 64.7 versus expectations of 54.0.
International
October Japanese
household spending was up 1.1% versus estimates of up 1.5%; October YoY average
earnings were up 1.8% versus +2.2%.
October German
factory orders rose 0.8% versus consensus of +0.1%.
The November EU
construction PMI was 43.5 versus predictions of 46.0; the November German
construction PMI was 41.5 versus 45.2; the November UK construction PMI was
50.4 versus 52.0.
November German
YoY new car registrations were up 31.4% versus an anticipated increase of 12.0%.
Other
This week in the economic charts.
https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/the-week-in-charts-12-4-22
Lower rates to the
rescue. From my favorite optimist. In this case, a bit to sanguine about the
effects of the national debt.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/12/lower-interest-rates-to-rescue.html
BIS sounds alarm over $80 trillion in dollar
debt derivatives. (must read)
Defaults loom as poor countries face economic
storm.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/business/developing-countries-debt-defaults.html
The latest Q4 nowcasts.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/q4-gdp-tracking-around-15.html
Home prices down 3.2% since June.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-home.html
Geopolitics
I don’t agree with
the author’s conclusion, but this article does highlight the problem with bureaucrats
trying to alter economic reality.
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3759862-the-russian-oil-debacle/
Bottom line
How a top Goldman trader sees the market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/19-days-left-trade-how-top-goldman-trader-closing-out-year
Morgan Stanley
turns negative.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/perfect-bull-trap-mike-wilson-turns-bearish-again-says-rally-over
Too
much too fast?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-great-months-us-stocks-promise-too-much-own-good
Update on
valuation.
The latest from Ed
Yardini.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Healthy
eating.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/12/healthy-eating/
While this
article addresses the compensation of British public employees, it applies
equally to the US.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/dominic-lawson-misses-a-little-trick-here
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2022/12/quotation-of-the-day-4105.html
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