Tuesday, December 6, 2022

The Morning Call---The S&P fails at its 200 DMA

 

The Morning Call

 

12/6/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bullion-black-gold-battered-soft-landing-hopes-fade

                 

Note: the S&P finished back below its 200 DMA, failing to successfully complete the necessary time/distance requirement for a trend reversal.  That leaves the DMA as resistance.  In addition, the index retreated enough to bring it close to the uptrend off its 10/13 low.

 

            Update on the squeeze.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/alongway

 

            For the optimists: Sentiment is not good.

            https://allstarcharts.com/people-are-angry-good/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales growth declined significantly from the prior week.

 

The October trade balance was -$79.2 billion versus predictions of -$80 billion.

 

October factory orders rose 1.0% versus projections of +0.7%; ex transportation, they were up 0.8% versus up 0.1%.

 

The final November services PMI came in at 46.2 versus forecasts of 46.1; the composite PMI was 46.4 versus 46.3.

 

The November ISM nonmanufacturing index was 64.7 versus expectations of 54.0.

 

                        International

 

October Japanese household spending was up 1.1% versus estimates of up 1.5%; October YoY average earnings were up 1.8% versus +2.2%.

 

October German factory orders rose 0.8% versus consensus of +0.1%.

 

The November EU construction PMI was 43.5 versus predictions of 46.0; the November German construction PMI was 41.5 versus 45.2; the November UK construction PMI was 50.4 versus 52.0.

 

November German YoY new car registrations were up 31.4% versus an anticipated increase of 12.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          This week in the economic charts.

                          https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/the-week-in-charts-12-4-22

 

Lower rates to the rescue.  From my favorite optimist.  In this case, a bit to sanguine about the effects of the national debt.

https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/12/lower-interest-rates-to-rescue.html

 

                          BIS sounds alarm over $80 trillion in dollar debt derivatives. (must read)

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bis-sounds-alarm-over-80-trillion-huge-missing-and-hidden-swap-debt

 

                                                  Defaults loom as poor countries face economic storm.

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/03/business/developing-countries-debt-defaults.html

 

                                                  The latest Q4 nowcasts.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/q4-gdp-tracking-around-15.html

 

                                                  Home prices down 3.2% since June.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-home.html

 

            Geopolitics

 

I don’t agree with the author’s conclusion, but this article does highlight the problem with bureaucrats trying to alter economic reality.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3759862-the-russian-oil-debacle/

 

     Bottom line

 

            How  a top Goldman trader sees the market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/19-days-left-trade-how-top-goldman-trader-closing-out-year

 

            Morgan Stanley turns negative.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/perfect-bull-trap-mike-wilson-turns-bearish-again-says-rally-over

 

            Too much too fast?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/two-great-months-us-stocks-promise-too-much-own-good

 

            Update on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/12/05/regression-to-trend-115-above-trend-in-november

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/12/05/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-november-update

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/12/02/market-cap-to-gdp-buffett-valuation-indicator

 

            The latest from Ed Yardini.

            https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-2023-ed-yardeni-recession-forecast-best-stocks-2022-12

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Healthy eating.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/12/healthy-eating/

 

While this article addresses the compensation of British public employees, it applies equally to the US.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/dominic-lawson-misses-a-little-trick-here

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2022/12/quotation-of-the-day-4105.html

 

 

 

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